Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Strasbourg vs Mainz

Europe Europe

Conference League 2025/2026 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Kohr D.
26' Event
Nanasi S.
35' Event
Ouattara A.
Assist: Enciso J.

AI Match Summary

Strasbourg in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Strasbourg
20%
Draws
40%
Mainz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Mainz have won more games recently than Strasbourg.
  • Mainz are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Mainz arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Strasbourg, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Strasbourg Clean Sheet 10%
Mainz Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Strasbourg Mainz
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 16
Draws 5 7
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.46 2.62
Goals Conceded 1.96 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Conference League
Strasbourg vs Mainz
4:0
Apr 9, 2026 Conference League
Mainz vs Strasbourg
2:0
Aug 9, 2025 Club Friendly
Mainz vs Strasbourg
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Strasbourg Compare

Top Goalscorer Nanasi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ouattara A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Mainz Compare

Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Strasbourg 10 / 100
Mainz 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Strasbourg Mainz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mainz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Strasbourg remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Strasbourg's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Mainz let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Strasbourg VS Mainz
1.13 Goals Scored 3.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Strasbourg

(Home)
12 Sept
Strasbourg
1 : 1
Monaco
06 Sept
Troyes
2 : 6
Strasbourg
29 Aug
Strasbourg
2 : 1
Lens
21 Aug
Marseille
4 : 0
Strasbourg
16 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2
Strasbourg
Page 1 of 6

Mainz

(Away)
12 Sept
Mainz
1 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0
Paderborn
23 Aug
Krieschow
0 : 9
Mainz
15 Aug
Mainz
2 : 1
Bournemouth
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0