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Sturm Graz vs Hearts Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

Champions League Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz Logo

Sturm Graz

4 - 0
FT
Hearts Logo

Hearts

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Gorenc Stankovic J.
Assist: Mitchell J.
46'
Sub
Seidl S. In: Kiteishvili O.
Out: Seidl S.
47'
McEntee O.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. The second leg ended 4-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Sturm Graz
20%
Draws
47%
Hearts
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hearts

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hearts come out ahead of Sturm Graz on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Hearts's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Hearts arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Sturm Graz, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 10%
Hearts Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturm Graz Hearts
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 17
Draws 10 5
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.83 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Champions League
Hearts vs Sturm Graz
0:2
Jul 21, 2026 Champions League
Sturm Graz vs Hearts
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sturm Graz Compare

Top Goalscorer Gorenc Stankovic J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mitchell J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Hearts Compare

Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturm Graz 18 / 100
Hearts 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturm Graz Hearts

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hearts Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sturm Graz scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Hearts let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Sturm Graz stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sturm Graz VS Hearts
1.13 Goals Scored 2.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Sturm Graz

(Home)
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
05 Sept
ASK Voitsberg
1 : 4
Sturm Graz
30 Aug
Rapid Vienna
3 : 1
Sturm Graz
Page 1 of 6

Hearts

(Away)
19 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 1
Hearts
15 Sept
Falkirk
2 : 1
Hearts
11 Sept
Stenhousemuir
0 : 3
Hearts
06 Sept
Hearts
2 : 1
Dundee FC
03 Sept
Hibernian
1 : 3
Hearts
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Borac Banja Luka 1
Levski Sofia 5
ML Vitebsk 1
Univ. Craiova 5
Omonia -
TBD -
Kairat Almaty 4
Sutjeska 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun -
TBD -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb -
Klaksvik 4
Bissen 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris 4
Drita 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby -
TBD -
Lincoln Red Imps 4
Inter Escaldes 2
Flora 4
Iberia 1999 5
TBD -
Slovan Bratislava -
Ararat-Armenia 4
Riga FC 3
Floriana 3
Shamrock Rovers 5
Petrocub Hincesti 2
KF Egnatia 7
TBD -
Celje -
Vikingur Reykjavik 3
Gyor 2
TBD -
H. Beer Sheva -
Tre Fiori 1
Larne 3
TBD -
Crvena zvezda -
Aarhus -
TBD -
TBD -
Lech Poznan -
Sabah Baku 4
TNS 1
Vardar 3
KuPS 4
Fenerbahce -
TBD -
TBD -
Gornik Zabrze -
Sturm Graz -
TBD -
TBD -
Hearts -
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Quarter-finals
Levski Sofia 3
Univ. Craiova 2
Omonia 1
Kairat Almaty 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun 3
Din. Zagreb 4
Klaksvik 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 3
Lincoln Red Imps 0
Iberia 1999 1
Slovan Bratislava 3
Ararat-Armenia 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
KF Egnatia 5
Celje 6
Vikingur Reykjavik 2
H. Beer Sheva 3
Larne 0
Crvena zvezda 9
Aarhus 6
Lech Poznan 5
Sabah Baku 3
KuPS 0
Fenerbahce 2
Gornik Zabrze 1
Sturm Graz 6
Hearts 0
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Semi-finals
Levski Sofia 2
Kairat Almaty 0
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Din. Zagreb 7
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 1
Slovan Bratislava 4
Ararat-Armenia 2
Celje 3
H. Beer Sheva 3
Crvena zvezda 0
Aarhus 2
Sabah Baku 5
Fenerbahce 3
Sturm Graz 0
Sparta Prague 2
Lyon 4
Olympiacos Piraeus 1
Nijmegen 2
Royale Union SG 5
Bodo/Glimt 6
Final
Levski Sofia 0
AEK 4
Celtic 4
LASK Linz 5
Din. Zagreb 3
Viking 5
Slovan Bratislava 3
Celje 2
H. Beer Sheva 4
Sabah Baku 6
Fenerbahce 3
Lyon 2
Nijmegen 1
Bodo/Glimt 6