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Sturm Graz vs Salzburg

Austria Austria

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Merkur-Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sturm Graz play Salzburg in the Bundesliga 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sturm Graz averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Salzburg averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.26 conceded. In past meetings, Sturm Graz won 2, Salzburg won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Sturm Graz and 1.63 for Salzburg. This points to a Sturm Graz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Sturm Graz
35%
Draws
29%
Salzburg
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sturm Graz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Sturm Graz picked up more points recently compared to Salzburg.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 14%
Salzburg Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturm Graz Salzburg
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 10 11
Draws 11 5
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.67 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
1:1
Mar 20, 2026 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
1:1
Sep 20, 2025 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
0:2
May 9, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sturm Graz Compare

Top Goalscorer Gorenc Stankovic J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Salzburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Vertessen Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturm Graz 35 / 100
Salzburg 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturm Graz Salzburg

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sturm Graz or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sturm Graz attacking → ← attacking Salzburg

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sturm Graz scored in 85% of their last 27 games.

Salzburg let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Sturm Graz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Salzburg lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 38
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1LASK Linz32177856:4239
2Sturm Graz32168851:3537
3Salzburg321391056:4129
4Austria Vienna321451345:5029
5Rapid Vienna321281236:4127
6Hartberg3210121040:4025