Sport Picks

Austria

Bundesliga Women 2025/2026

Neulengbach W

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sturm Graz W enters this Bundesliga Women 2025/2026 fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 62%. Sturm Graz W averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in recent matches. Neulengbach W shows a form average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 4 wins for Sturm Graz W, 1 wins for Neulengbach W, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 14.03.26 ended in a 0:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.38 for Sturm Graz W and 0.75 for Neulengbach W, suggesting the primary value lies in the Sturm Graz W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%

Sturm Graz W

15%

Draws

23%

Neulengbach W

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sturm Graz W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Sturm Graz W picked up more points recently compared to Neulengbach W.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 0.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 47%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Sturm Graz W Clean Sheet 27%

Neulengbach W Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sturm Graz W	Neulengbach W
Matches Played	29	25
Wins	13	4
Draws	2	5
Losses	14	16
Goals Scored	1.69	0.84
Goals Conceded	1.48	1.8
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

14.03.26 Bundesliga Women

Neulengbach W vs Sturm Graz W

Possession: 54% - 49% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

27.09.25 Bundesliga Women

Sturm Graz W vs Neulengbach W

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 1 - 3

5:1

23.11.24 Bundesliga Women

Sturm Graz W vs Neulengbach W

Possession: 59% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

16.10.24 Bundesliga Women

Neulengbach W vs Sturm Graz W

Possession: 54% - 50% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

12.05.24 Bundesliga Women

Sturm Graz W vs Neulengbach W

Possession: 55% - 60% Cards: 0 - 1

1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Sturm Graz W

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Neulengbach W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sturm Graz W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kustrin Z.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Maierhofer S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Neulengbach W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ziletkina A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.23

Avg xA / game 0.14

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturm Graz W 61 / 100

Neulengbach W 23 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sturm Graz W Neulengbach W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sturm Graz W Win (1)

Secondary Pick Sturm Graz W & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +14.7%

1.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.7%

2.44

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Sturm Graz W is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Sturm Graz W 68%

Neulengbach W 18%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

Neulengbach W will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Sturm Graz W's attacks.

Sturm Graz W 59%

Neulengbach W 24%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Sturm Graz W to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Sturm Graz W 62%

Neulengbach W 23%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Sturm Graz W vary their attacking width.

Sturm Graz W 65%

Neulengbach W 22%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Neulengbach W, allowing Sturm Graz W's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Sturm Graz W 56%

Neulengbach W 25%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Sturm Graz W, while Neulengbach W takes risks to salvage a result.

Sturm Graz W 71%

Neulengbach W 26%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sturm Graz W attacking → ← attacking Neulengbach W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sturm Graz W have found the net in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Neulengbach W have conceded at least one goal in 88% of their last 25 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.00 goals per match.

Sturm Graz W remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Neulengbach W suffered defeat in 5 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 17

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.25

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria Vienna W	18	17	1	0	52:5	52
2	St. Polten W	18	15	1	2	60:10	46
3	Sturm Graz W	18	11	1	6	40:23	34
4	Salzburg W	18	8	4	6	35:34	28
5	SCR Altach W	18	8	4	6	32:34	28
6	First Vienna W	18	7	4	7	32:33	25
7	LASK Linz W	18	6	2	10	18:30	20
8	Neulengbach W	18	3	3	12	13:34	12
9	Union Kleinmunchen W	18	3	0	15	14:45	9
10	FC Sudburgenland W	18	1	2	15	23:71	5