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Sturt Lions FC vs FK Beograd

Australia Australia

NPL South Australia Karinya Reserve
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Atkinson D.
77' Event
Lesi T.
90' Event
Sortini A.

AI Match Summary

Sturt Lions FC in this NPL South Australia matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sturt Lions FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Sturt Lions FC
20%
Draws
38%
FK Beograd
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sturt Lions FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sturt Lions FC lately — more wins on the board than FK Beograd.
  • Sturt Lions FC are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Sturt Lions FC Clean Sheet 10%
FK Beograd Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturt Lions FC FK Beograd
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 14
Draws 1 4
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.38 2
Goals Conceded 1.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs FK Beograd
2:1
Feb 28, 2026 NPL South Australia
FK Beograd vs Sturt Lions FC
1:3
Aug 11, 2023 NPL South Australia
FK Beograd vs Sturt Lions FC
3:1
May 6, 2023 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs FK Beograd
0:1
Aug 13, 2022 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs FK Beograd
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sturt Lions FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lesi T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sortini A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

FK Beograd Compare

Top Goalscorer Atkinson D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturt Lions FC 40 / 100
FK Beograd 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturt Lions FC FK Beograd

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sturt Lions FC scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

FK Beograd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Sturt Lions FC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sturt Lions FC VS FK Beograd
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1MetroStars17114248:1837
2West Torrens Birkalla18113445:2636
3Adelaide City17105233:1435
4FK Beograd1793531:1930
5Croydon1783638:3027
6Playford Patriots1775535:2626
7Campbelltown City1864828:2922
8Adelaide Utd U231757522:2422
9Sturt Lions FC17701030:3021
10West Adelaide1746733:3418
11Adelaide Comets18341119:3513
12Para1802169:862