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Subiaco vs Gwelup Croatia SC

Australia Australia

WA State League Rosalie Park
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AI Match Summary

Subiaco play Gwelup Croatia SC in the WA State League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Subiaco averaged 1.45 goals scored and 2.31 conceded. Gwelup Croatia SC averaged 1.41 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Subiaco won 3, Gwelup Croatia SC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.50 for Subiaco and 2.06 for Gwelup Croatia SC. This points to a Gwelup Croatia SC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Subiaco
16%
Draws
46%
Gwelup Croatia SC
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Gwelup Croatia SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Subiaco picked up more points recently compared to Gwelup Croatia SC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.50 vs 2.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Subiaco Clean Sheet 10%
Gwelup Croatia SC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Subiaco Gwelup Croatia SC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 7
Draws 4 9
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 1.45 1.41
Goals Conceded 2.31 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.88 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 WA State League
Subiaco vs Gwelup Croatia SC
5:1
Jul 26, 2025 WA State League
Gwelup Croatia SC vs Subiaco
0:1
May 10, 2025 WA State League
Subiaco vs Gwelup Croatia SC
2:4
Jun 22, 2024 WA State League
Subiaco vs Gwelup Croatia SC
0:1
Mar 23, 2024 WA State League
Gwelup Croatia SC vs Subiaco
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Subiaco Compare

Top Goalscorer Despotovski T.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Steele J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Gwelup Croatia SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Wilkinson S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Subiaco 36 / 100
Gwelup Croatia SC 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Subiaco Gwelup Croatia SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gwelup Croatia SC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Subiaco attacking → ← attacking Gwelup Croatia SC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Subiaco scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Gwelup Croatia SC let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Subiaco went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Gwelup Croatia SC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 30
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1UWA Nedlands15112237:1735
2Floreat Athena15103234:1633
3Joondalup City1591527:2128
4Mandurah City1582536:2726
5Inglewood Utd1573513:1524
6Kingsley Westside1571724:2222
7Cockburn City1554628:3119
8Quinns1553719:3018
9Murdoch University Melville1536625:3015
10Gwelup Croatia SC1536621:3015
11Curtin University15231011:239
12Subiaco15301225:389