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Sudan vs Lebanon Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

FIFA Arab Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sub
Sharafeddine H. In: El Zein K.
Out: Sharafeddine H.
15'
Abdelrahman M.
18'
Khamis K.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Sudan
15%
Draws
42%
Lebanon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sudan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lebanon lately — more wins on the board than Sudan.
  • Win probability leans Lebanon's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Lebanon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Sudan, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.8%
Sudan Clean Sheet 11%
Lebanon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sudan Lebanon
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 7 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 0.74 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.15 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.82
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 Friendly International
Lebanon vs Sudan
0:0
Nov 26, 2025 FIFA Arab Cup
Sudan vs Lebanon
2:1
Dec 7, 2021 FIFA Arab Cup
Lebanon vs Sudan
1:0
Jun 27, 2012 FIFA Arab Cup
Lebanon vs Sudan
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sudan Compare

Top Goalscorer Jobak Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Lebanon Compare

Top Goalscorer Khamis K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sudan 10 / 100
Lebanon 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sudan Lebanon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lebanon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Away concern: Lebanon has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Sudan found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Lebanon conceded in 46% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Sudan VS Lebanon
0.38 Goals Scored 2.14
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 71%
13% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Sudan

(Home)
29 Sept
Mozambique
4 : 1
Sudan
25 Sept
Sudan
1 : 0
Ethiopia
03 Jan
Senegal
3 : 1
Sudan
31 Dec
Sudan
0 : 2
Burkina Faso
28 Dec
Equatorial Guinea
0 : 1
Sudan
Page 1 of 6

Lebanon

(Away)
04 Oct
Kyrgyzstan
3 : 1
Lebanon
01 Oct
Maldives
0 : 6
Lebanon
04 Jun
Lebanon
0 : 2
Yemen
26 Nov
Sudan
2 : 1
Lebanon
18 Nov
Brunei
0 : 3
Lebanon
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Oman 1
Somalia 0
Bahrain 1
Djibouti 0
Syria 2
South Sudan 0
Palestine 1
Libya 0
Lebanon 1
Sudan 2
Kuwait 2
Mauritania 0
Yemen 4
Comoros 5