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SumQayit FK vs Neftci Baku - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium, Sumqayit
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Breno Almeida
31' Event
Tupta L.
46'
Sub
Pashayev V. In: Jankovic A.
Out: Pashayev V.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between SumQayit FK and Neftci Baku finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftci Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
SumQayit FK
30%
Draws
47%
Neftci Baku
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Neftci Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Neftci Baku carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Neftci Baku are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
SumQayit FK Clean Sheet 14%
Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SumQayit FK Neftci Baku
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 5 19
Draws 6 4
Losses 18 7
Goals Scored 1.07 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.76 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.58
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Premier League
SumQayit FK vs Neftci Baku
1:3
Apr 5, 2026 Premier League
SumQayit FK vs Neftci Baku
1:3
Dec 15, 2025 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs SumQayit FK
2:2
Sep 21, 2025 Premier League
SumQayit FK vs Neftci Baku
0:2
Apr 28, 2025 Premier League
SumQayit FK vs Neftci Baku
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SumQayit FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Orucov N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Neftci Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Breno Almeida
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tupta L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.44
Avg xA / game 0.88

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SumQayit FK 27 / 100
Neftci Baku 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SumQayit FK Neftci Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neftci Baku Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

SumQayit FK's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Neftci Baku's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

SumQayit FK has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

SumQayit FK VS Neftci Baku
1.14 Goals Scored 1.88
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.13
71% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

SumQayit FK

(Home)
10 Oct
SumQayit FK
4 : 1
Gabala
20 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 1
SumQayit FK
12 Sept
SumQayit FK
1 : 1
Shamakhi
06 Sept
Turan
2 : 1
SumQayit FK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
Page 1 of 6

Neftci Baku

(Away)
09 Oct
Neftci Baku
0 : 0
Sabah Baku
18 Sept
Gabala
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
11 Sept
Imisli FK
2 : 3
Neftci Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1
Safa Baku
30 Aug
Zira FK
1 : 0
Neftci Baku
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
2 Sabah Baku 6 5 1 0 14:1 16
3 Qarabag Agdam 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
4 Turan 7 4 2 1 7:4 14
5 Zira FK 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
6 Kapaz 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
7 Shamakhi 7 2 4 1 9:7 10
8 SumQayit FK 6 1 2 3 8:9 5
9 Gabala 7 1 1 5 3:11 4
10 Imisli FK 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
11 Safa Baku 7 1 0 6 2:12 3
12 Araz PFK 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)