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Sunderland vs Chelsea

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Hume T.
Assist: O'Nien L.
42'
Angulo N.
50' Event
Gusto M.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Sunderland and Chelsea finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sunderland.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Sunderland
15%
Draws
37%
Chelsea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sunderland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sunderland come out ahead of Chelsea on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Chelsea's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Sunderland Clean Sheet 14%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sunderland Chelsea
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.31 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Premier League
Sunderland vs Chelsea
2:1
Oct 25, 2025 Premier League
Chelsea vs Sunderland
1:2
May 21, 2017 Premier League
Chelsea vs Sunderland
5:1
Dec 14, 2016 Premier League
Sunderland vs Chelsea
0:1
May 7, 2016 Premier League
Sunderland vs Chelsea
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sunderland Compare

Top Goalscorer Hume T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Chelsea Compare

Top Goalscorer Palmer C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sunderland 27 / 100
Chelsea 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sunderland Chelsea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chelsea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelsea has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Sunderland scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Sunderland has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sunderland VS Chelsea
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sunderland

(Home)
15 Aug
Sunderland
2 : 1
Rennes
08 Aug
Lens
0 : 2
Sunderland
08 Aug
Lens
4 : 1
Sunderland
02 Aug
Wrexham
0 : 1
Sunderland
30 Jul
Sunderland
0 : 1
Leeds
Page 1 of 6

Chelsea

(Away)
15 Aug
Chelsea
3 : 1
Real Sociedad
09 Aug
Johor DT
3 : 3
Chelsea
08 Aug
Chelsea
3 : 0
AC Milan
05 Aug
Chelsea
0 : 1
Juventus
01 Aug
Chelsea
1 : 2
Tottenham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal 38 26 7 5 71:27 85
2 Manchester City 38 23 9 6 77:35 78
3 Manchester United 38 20 11 7 69:50 71
4 Aston Villa 38 19 8 11 56:49 65
5 Liverpool 38 17 9 12 63:53 60
6 Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 58:54 57
7 Sunderland 38 14 12 12 42:48 54
8 Brighton 38 14 11 13 52:46 53
9 Brentford 38 14 11 13 55:52 53
10 Chelsea 38 14 10 14 58:52 52
11 Fulham 38 15 7 16 47:51 52
12 Newcastle Utd 38 14 7 17 53:55 49
13 Everton 38 13 10 15 47:50 49
14 Leeds 38 11 14 13 49:56 47
15 Crystal Palace 38 11 12 15 41:51 45
16 Nottingham 38 11 11 16 48:51 44
17 Tottenham 38 10 11 17 48:57 41
18 West Ham 38 10 9 19 46:65 39
19 Burnley 38 4 10 24 38:75 22
20 Wolves 38 3 11 24 27:68 20
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)