Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Super Nova vs Grobina

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Jana Skredela stadions, Riga
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Ribeiro J.
33'
Puzirevskis A.
39'
Oss M.

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between Super Nova and Grobina finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Super Nova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Super Nova
30%
Draws
23%
Grobina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Grobina haven't matched Super Nova's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Super Nova a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 68%
Grobina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova Grobina
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 4 10
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Grobina
2:0
May 20, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs Super Nova
0:2
Apr 9, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs Super Nova
0:1
Oct 18, 2025 Virsliga
Grobina vs Super Nova
0:0
Jul 26, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Grobina
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Samate A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lizunovs V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Grobina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 68 / 100
Grobina 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova Grobina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Super Nova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Super Nova scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Grobina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Super Nova stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Grobina's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS Grobina
1 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
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Grobina

(Away)
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
06 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Grobina
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
21 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Grobina
17 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 2
Grobina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 29 23 4 2 70:21 73
2 Riga FC 30 21 7 2 85:30 70
3 FK Auda Riga 30 18 6 6 48:29 60
4 FK Liepaja 30 12 6 12 41:43 42
5 BFC Daugavpils 30 10 8 12 35:35 38
6 Super Nova 29 10 5 14 29:39 35
7 Jelgava 30 8 8 14 32:48 32
8 Grobina 30 5 10 15 20:51 25
9 Tukums 2000 30 5 8 17 43:60 23
10 Ogre United 30 3 6 21 29:76 15
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)