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Super Nova vs Tukums 2000

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Jana Skredela stadions, Riga
Thu, Sep 10, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Super Nova host Tukums 2000 in the Virsliga. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Super Nova have averaged 1.1 scored and 1.45 conceded recently, against Tukums 2000's 1.55 scored and 1.97 conceded. Head-to-head, Super Nova have won 3 to Tukums 2000's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 11, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 1.38, favoring Super Nova. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Super Nova
15%
Draws
28%
Tukums 2000
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Super Nova carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Super Nova taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 17%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova Tukums 2000
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 4
Draws 4 10
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 1.1 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Latvian Cup
Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova
1:2
Jul 1, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova
1:2
May 11, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Tukums 2000
1:1
Mar 22, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 66 / 100
Tukums 2000 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova Tukums 2000

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Super Nova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000 let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

Super Nova found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Difficult form: Tukums 2000 registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS Tukums 2000
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
16 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 1
RFS
09 Aug
Super Nova
1 : 2
FK Liepaja
20 Jul
Super Nova
2 : 0
Grobina
11 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
06 Jul
Super Nova
1 : 2
Ogre United
Page 1 of 6

Tukums 2000

(Away)
08 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 0
Tukums 2000
02 Aug
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
FK Liepaja
27 Jul
Tukums 2000
0 : 1
RFS
18 Jul
Riga FC
3 : 1
Tukums 2000
11 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 25 21 2 2 62:17 65
2 Riga FC 25 20 4 1 76:21 64
3 FK Auda Riga 24 14 4 6 39:26 46
4 BFC Daugavpils 26 10 6 10 33:31 36
5 FK Liepaja 25 10 4 11 33:37 34
6 Super Nova 24 8 3 13 26:37 27
7 Jelgava 26 6 7 13 25:44 25
8 Grobina 26 4 9 13 18:47 21
9 Tukums 2000 26 4 8 14 40:51 20
10 Ogre United 25 3 5 17 24:65 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)