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Stadium Background

Suwalki vs Lidzbark Warmimski - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I Stadion Miejski w Suwałkach, Suwałki
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Matuc A.
24' Event
Noworyta K.
45'
Jakubczyk P.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I game between Suwalki and Lidzbark Warmimski finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lidzbark Warmimski.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Suwalki
20%
Draws
33%
Lidzbark Warmimski
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Suwalki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Suwalki carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Suwalki are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Suwalki Clean Sheet 15%
Lidzbark Warmimski Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Suwalki Lidzbark Warmimski
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 8
Draws 7 11
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.8 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Suwalki vs Lidzbark Warmimski
1:3
Mar 29, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Lidzbark Warmimski vs Suwalki
0:0
Aug 30, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Suwalki vs Lidzbark Warmimski
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Suwalki Compare

Top Goalscorer Noworyta K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Lidzbark Warmimski Compare

Top Goalscorer Matuc A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Krasa K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Suwalki 48 / 100
Lidzbark Warmimski 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Suwalki Lidzbark Warmimski

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Suwalki Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Suwalki's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lidzbark Warmimski's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Suwalki stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Suwalki VS Lidzbark Warmimski
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Suwalki

(Home)
03 Oct
Suwalki
1 : 0
Plock II
26 Sept
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
0 : 2
Suwalki
20 Sept
Suwalki
6 : 3
Widzew Lodz II
12 Sept
Olimpia Zambrow
1 : 1
Suwalki
06 Sept
Suwalki
1 : 3
Lidzbark Warmimski
Page 1 of 6

Lidzbark Warmimski

(Away)
03 Oct
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2
Lidzbark Warmimski
26 Sept
Lidzbark Warmimski
1 : 1
KTS Weszlo
19 Sept
Pelikan
1 : 0
Lidzbark Warmimski
12 Sept
Lidzbark Warmimski
1 : 2
Warta Sieradz
06 Sept
Suwalki
1 : 3
Lidzbark Warmimski
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KTS Weszlo 11 8 2 1 24:10 26
2 Suwalki 11 6 4 1 19:10 22
3 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 11 6 3 2 27:18 21
4 Pelikan 11 6 2 3 17:13 20
5 Swit Mazowiecki 11 6 2 3 20:12 20
6 Plock II 11 5 3 3 22:18 18
7 Zabkovia Zabki 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 22:20 15
9 Warta Sieradz 10 4 3 3 18:16 15
10 Widzew Lodz II 10 4 2 4 21:18 14
11 Olimpia Zambrow 11 4 2 5 23:27 14
12 Tomaszow Mazowiecki 11 4 1 6 21:23 13
13 Olimpia Elblag 11 4 1 6 16:20 13
14 LKS Lodz II 10 3 2 5 16:19 11
15 MKS Mlawa 11 3 1 7 22:32 10
16 Lidzbark Warmimski 11 2 3 6 16:22 9
17 Troszyn 10 1 4 5 12:24 7
18 LKS Lomza 11 0 3 8 10:25 3
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)