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III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 Stadion Miejski w Suwałkach

Suwalki

2 - 0

MKS Mlawa

Our Tip

Match Events

29'

Guzewski B.

30'

Guzdek B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 game between Suwalki and MKS Mlawa finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Suwalki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%

Suwalki

11%

Draws

MKS Mlawa

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Suwalki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Suwalki come out ahead of MKS Mlawa on wins alone.
Model gives Suwalki a 80% chance of winning this.
Regular III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Suwalki have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%

Suwalki Clean Sheet 16%

MKS Mlawa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Suwalki	MKS Mlawa
Matches Played	29	27
Wins	17	11
Draws	4	4
Losses	8	12
Goals Scored	2	1.88
Goals Conceded	1	1
Expected Goals (xG)	2.00	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 III Liga - Group I

Suwalki vs MKS Mlawa

Possession: 60% - 47% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Oct 18, 2025 III Liga - Group I

MKS Mlawa vs Suwalki

Possession: 49% - 41% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Mar 26, 2025 III Liga - Group I

Suwalki vs MKS Mlawa

Possession: 52% - 52% Cards: 4 - 4

1:2

Aug 10, 2024 III Liga - Group I

MKS Mlawa vs Suwalki

Possession: 41% - 58% Cards: 3 - 3

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Suwalki Compare

Top Goalscorer Guzewski B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Guzdek B.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.54

Avg xA / game 1

MKS Mlawa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Suwalki 75 / 100

MKS Mlawa 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Suwalki MKS Mlawa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WIG Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Suwalki scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: MKS Mlawa conceded in 85% of 27 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Suwalki went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Suwalki VS MKS Mlawa

2 Goals Scored 1.88

1 Goals Conceded 1

88% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Legia II	34	27	3	4	82:29	84
2	LKS Lomza	34	22	5	7	77:31	71
3	Warta Sieradz	34	21	8	5	64:34	71
4	Suwalki	34	20	5	9	64:43	65
5	Troszyn	34	17	6	11	75:47	57
6	Plock II	34	16	8	10	56:51	56
7	Widzew Lodz II	34	17	3	14	70:64	54
8	Jagiellonia II	34	14	7	13	46:45	49
9	Tomaszow Mazowiecki	34	13	8	13	64:55	47
10	Zabkovia Zabki	34	13	5	16	72:64	44
11	Swit Mazowiecki	34	12	5	17	51:66	41
12	MKS Mlawa	34	11	7	16	55:59	40
13	Olimpia Elblag	34	10	8	16	45:61	38
14	GKS Wikielec	34	10	7	17	40:54	37
15	Bron Radom	34	9	9	16	40:57	36
16	GKS Belchatow	34	9	7	18	50:76	34
17	Wasilkow	34	7	4	23	40:79	25
18	Znicz Biala Piska	34	4	3	27	27:103	15