Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SV Erlbach vs Geretsried

Germany Germany

Oberliga Bayern Süd 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Oberliga Bayern Süd 2025/2026 game between SV Erlbach and Geretsried finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Geretsried.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
SV Erlbach
22%
Draws
18%
Geretsried
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: SV Erlbach

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SV Erlbach come out ahead of Geretsried on wins alone.
  • Model gives SV Erlbach a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
SV Erlbach Clean Sheet 10%
Geretsried Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SV Erlbach Geretsried
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2026 Oberliga Bayern Süd
SV Erlbach vs Geretsried
1:2
Sep 27, 2025 Oberliga Bayern Süd
Geretsried vs SV Erlbach
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SV Erlbach 56 / 100
Geretsried 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SV Erlbach Geretsried

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ERL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SV Erlbach's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Geretsried conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

SV Erlbach has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

SV Erlbach VS Geretsried
1 Goals Scored 2.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

SV Erlbach

(Home)
16 Jul
SV Erlbach
3 : 0
Hankofen-Hailing
16 May
Pipinsried
0 : 2
SV Erlbach
08 May
SV Erlbach
2 : 0
Schalding
30 Apr
FC Schwaig
2 : 0
SV Erlbach
24 Apr
SV Erlbach
1 : 0
Gundelfingen
Page 1 of 6

Geretsried

(Away)
17 Jul
Munich 1860 II
5 : 1
Geretsried
16 May
Geretsried
4 : 1
Nordlingen
08 May
FC Sturm Hauzenberg
1 : 4
Geretsried
01 May
Geretsried
1 : 2
Landsberg
25 Apr
Kirchanschoring
1 : 1
Geretsried
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Munich 1860 II32215674:2668
2Landsberg321811379:4365
3Kirchanschoring321610667:3558
4Gundelfingen32167951:3355
5SV Erlbach321651142:3553
6Pipinsried321571058:3752
7Heimstetten32149964:4651
8Deisenhofen321310944:4749
9FC Schwaig321291148:4445
10Geretsried321281249:4644
11Nordlingen3211111058:5844
12Ismaning321191250:5842
13Schalding329111243:5038
14Kottern-St. Mang32961740:5733
15FC Sturm Hauzenberg32652124:6423
16Turkspor Augsburg32452328:8317
17Turkgucu Munchen32342521:7813
Promotion - Regionalliga Bayern (Main)
Promotion - Regionalliga Bayern 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Oberliga Bayern Nord 2025/2026 (Relegation)