Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SV Erlbach vs Geretsried

Germany Germany

Oberliga Bayern Süd 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Oberliga Bayern Süd 2025/2026 game between SV Erlbach and Geretsried finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Geretsried.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
SV Erlbach
15%
Draws
20%
Geretsried
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SV Erlbach

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SV Erlbach come out ahead of Geretsried on wins alone.
  • Model gives SV Erlbach a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
SV Erlbach Clean Sheet 20%
Geretsried Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SV Erlbach Geretsried
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 15 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.5 1.56
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2026 Oberliga Bayern Süd
SV Erlbach vs Geretsried
1:2
Sep 27, 2025 Oberliga Bayern Süd
Geretsried vs SV Erlbach
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SV Erlbach 85 / 100
Geretsried 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SV Erlbach Geretsried

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SV Erlbach Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SV Erlbach's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Geretsried conceded in 85% of 34 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

SV Erlbach has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

SV Erlbach VS Geretsried
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

SV Erlbach

(Home)
11 Sept
SV Erlbach
3 : 0
Kottern-St. Mang
04 Sept
TSV 1860 Rosenheim
1 : 0
SV Erlbach
28 Aug
SV Erlbach
2 : 0
Ismaning
23 Aug
FC Schwaig
0 : 0
SV Erlbach
18 Aug
Kirchanschoring
0 : 1
SV Erlbach
Page 1 of 6

Geretsried

(Away)
12 Sept
Deisenhofen
4 : 0
Geretsried
05 Sept
Geretsried
0 : 1
Landshut
28 Aug
Hankofen-Hailing
1 : 0
Geretsried
22 Aug
Geretsried
2 : 3
Pfaffenhofen
18 Aug
Schalding
1 : 5
Geretsried
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Munich 1860 II 32 21 5 6 74:26 68
2 Landsberg 32 18 11 3 79:43 65
3 Kirchanschoring 32 16 10 6 67:35 58
4 Gundelfingen 32 16 7 9 51:33 55
5 SV Erlbach 32 16 5 11 42:35 53
6 Pipinsried 32 15 7 10 58:37 52
7 Heimstetten 32 14 9 9 64:46 51
8 Deisenhofen 32 13 10 9 44:47 49
9 FC Schwaig 32 12 9 11 48:44 45
10 Geretsried 32 12 8 12 49:46 44
11 Nordlingen 32 11 11 10 58:58 44
12 Ismaning 32 11 9 12 50:58 42
13 Schalding 32 9 11 12 43:50 38
14 Kottern-St. Mang 32 9 6 17 40:57 33
15 FC Sturm Hauzenberg 32 6 5 21 24:64 23
16 Turkspor Augsburg 32 4 5 23 28:83 17
17 Turkgucu Munchen 32 3 4 25 21:78 13
Promotion - Regionalliga Bayern (Main)
Promotion - Regionalliga Bayern 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Oberliga Bayern Nord 2025/2026 (Relegation)