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Svyturys Marijampole vs TAIP Vilnius

Lithuania Lithuania

Lithuanian Cup 2015/2016
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Svyturys Marijampole play TAIP Vilnius in the Lithuanian Cup 2015/2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Svyturys Marijampole averaged 1.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded. TAIP Vilnius averaged 3.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. In past meetings, Svyturys Marijampole won 1, TAIP Vilnius won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 12, 2015 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Svyturys Marijampole and 2.69 for TAIP Vilnius. This points to a Svyturys Marijampole double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Svyturys Marijampole
15%
Draws
40%
TAIP Vilnius
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Svyturys Marijampole

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Svyturys Marijampole picked up more points recently compared to TAIP Vilnius.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 2.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Svyturys Marijampole Clean Sheet 10%
TAIP Vilnius Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Svyturys Marijampole TAIP Vilnius
Matches Played 18 9
Wins 11 6
Draws 0 0
Losses 7 3
Goals Scored 1.89 3.33
Goals Conceded 2.11 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 3.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 12, 2015 Lithuanian Cup
Svyturys Marijampole vs TAIP Vilnius
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Svyturys Marijampole 43 / 100
TAIP Vilnius 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Svyturys Marijampole TAIP Vilnius

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Svyturys Marijampole or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.3%
1.54
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Svyturys Marijampole attacking → ← attacking TAIP Vilnius

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Svyturys Marijampole scored in 78% of their last 18 games.

TAIP Vilnius let in goals in 67% of their last 9 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Svyturys Marijampole went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

TAIP Vilnius lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 18
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 3.75
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25