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SW Essen vs 1. FC Koln

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Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SW Essen play 1. FC Koln in the Club Friendly 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, SW Essen averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. 1. FC Koln averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. In past meetings, SW Essen won 0, 1. FC Koln won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 3, 2025 ended 1:9. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for SW Essen and 1.69 for 1. FC Koln. This points to a SW Essen double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
SW Essen
24%
Draws
35%
1. FC Koln
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: SW Essen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • SW Essen picked up more points recently compared to 1. FC Koln.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
SW Essen Clean Sheet 13%
1. FC Koln Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SW Essen 1. FC Koln
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 4 10
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 1.59 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2025 Club Friendly
SW Essen vs 1. FC Koln
1:9
May 22, 2014 Club Friendly
SW Essen vs 1. FC Koln
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SW Essen Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanu R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

1. FC Koln Compare

Top Goalscorer Waldschmidt L.
5 Goals
Assists Leader Ache R.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SW Essen 40 / 100
1. FC Koln 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SW Essen 1. FC Koln

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: SW Essen or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SW Essen attacking → ← attacking 1. FC Koln

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SW Essen scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

1. FC Koln let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 7.00 goals.

SW Essen went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

1. FC Koln lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 25
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38