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Swansea vs Burnley - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Championship Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Swansea Logo

Swansea

3 - 1
FT
Burnley Logo

Burnley

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Idah A.
33' Event
Yeo M. K.
Assist: Just E.
46'
Sub
Key J. In: Lissah F.
Out: Key J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Swansea in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Swansea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Swansea
30%
Draws
23%
Burnley
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Swansea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Swansea have won more games recently than Burnley.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Burnley have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Swansea Clean Sheet 16%
Burnley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Swansea Burnley
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 2
Draws 6 11
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.34 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Championship
Swansea vs Burnley
3:1
Mar 15, 2025 Championship
Swansea vs Burnley
0:2
Nov 10, 2024 Championship
Burnley vs Swansea
1:0
Jan 2, 2023 Championship
Swansea vs Burnley
1:2
Oct 15, 2022 Championship
Burnley vs Swansea
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Swansea Compare

Top Goalscorer Idah A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yeo M. K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Burnley Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramazani L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Swansea 30 / 100
Burnley 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Swansea Burnley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Swansea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burnley has conceded goals in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Swansea scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Swansea stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Swansea VS Burnley
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Swansea

(Home)
03 Nov
Portsmouth
3 : 1
Swansea
31 Oct
Swansea
4 : 0
Blackburn
24 Oct
QPR
5 : 0
Swansea
17 Oct
Swansea
0 : 1
West Ham
13 Oct
Millwall
0 : 1
Swansea
Page 1 of 6

Burnley

(Away)
03 Nov
QPR
1 : 1
Burnley
31 Oct
Burnley
0 : 0
Portsmouth
24 Oct
Lincoln City
4 : 1
Burnley
16 Oct
Burnley
1 : 2
Wolves
13 Oct
Burnley
2 : 2
Charlton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough 14 8 4 2 30:19 28
2 Wolves 14 8 3 3 25:17 27
3 Birmingham 14 7 5 2 26:13 26
4 Stoke City 14 8 2 4 22:17 26
5 Swansea 14 8 2 4 21:16 26
6 West Brom 14 7 4 3 20:15 25
7 Southampton 14 8 4 2 29:14 24
8 West Ham 14 6 5 3 36:21 23
9 Sheffield Utd 14 6 4 4 20:17 22
10 Portsmouth 14 6 4 4 19:16 22
11 QPR 14 5 6 3 22:17 21
12 Norwich 14 6 0 8 27:24 18
13 Millwall 14 5 3 6 23:24 18
14 Blackburn 14 5 3 6 20:22 18
15 Bristol City 14 5 3 6 16:19 18
16 Wrexham 14 4 5 5 17:19 17
17 Bolton 14 5 2 7 19:26 17
18 Cardiff 14 3 6 5 22:23 15
19 Lincoln City 14 4 3 7 14:24 15
20 Watford 14 4 2 8 13:23 14
21 Charlton 14 3 5 6 11:22 14
22 Burnley 14 1 7 6 18:26 10
23 Derby 14 1 4 9 11:29 7
24 Preston 14 1 2 11 12:30 5
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)