Sport Picks
Swansea vs Southampton
England
Championship 2025/2026 Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea 
Match Events
18'
18'
Azaz F.
20'
20'
Stamenic M.
Assist: Vipotnik Z.
23'
23'
Franco G.
AI Match Summary
Southampton in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Southampton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
33%
40%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Southampton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Swansea haven't matched Southampton's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Southampton's way, sitting at 40%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Southampton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Swansea Clean Sheet 13%
Southampton Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Swansea | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 20 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 2 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 Championship
Swansea vs Southampton
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 Championship
Southampton vs Swansea
0:0
Jan 12, 2025 FA Cup
Southampton vs Swansea
3:0
Jan 20, 2024 Championship
Swansea vs Southampton
1:3
Dec 26, 2023 Championship
Southampton vs Swansea
5:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Swansea Compare
Top Goalscorer Stamenic M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Southampton Compare
Top Goalscorer Charles S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Archer C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Swansea 27 / 100
Southampton 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Swansea Southampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SOU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Swansea scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Southampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Swansea remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Swansea VS Southampton
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Swansea
(Home) 28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0 Swansea
24 Jul
Swansea
2 : 0 Udinese
21 Jul
Swansea
0 : 2 Bochum
18 Jul
Swansea
2 : 2 Holstein Kiel
02 May
Swansea
3 : 1 Charlton
Page 1 of 6
24 Jul
Swansea
2 : 0 Udinese
21 Jul
Swansea
0 : 2 Bochum
18 Jul
Swansea
2 : 2 Holstein Kiel
02 May
Swansea
3 : 1 Charlton
18 Apr
Swansea
1 : 2 Southampton
Page 1 of 3
Southampton
(Away) 24 Jul
Braunschweig
0 : 1 Southampton
18 Jul
Eastleigh
1 : 3 Southampton
12 May
Southampton
2 : 1 Middlesbrough
09 May
Middlesbrough
0 : 0 Southampton
02 May
Preston
1 : 3 Southampton
Page 1 of 6
24 Jul
Braunschweig
0 : 1 Southampton
18 Jul
Eastleigh
1 : 3 Southampton
09 May
Middlesbrough
0 : 0 Southampton
02 May
Preston
1 : 3 Southampton
25 Apr
Manchester City
2 : 1 Southampton
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke City | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | 0 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Main)
