Sport Picks
Match Events
8'
8'
Nygren B.
Assist: Lindelof V.
19'
19'
Svensson D.
35'
35'
Puchacz T.
AI Match Summary
The UEFA Nations League game between Sweden and Poland finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sweden.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
30%
16%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sweden
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Sweden come out ahead of Poland on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Sweden's way, sitting at 60%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Sweden here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Sweden Clean Sheet 14%
Poland Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sweden | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 14 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.9 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.61 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 28, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Sweden vs Poland
3:1
Mar 31, 2026 World Championship
Sweden vs Poland
3:2
Mar 29, 2022 World Championship
Poland vs Sweden
2:0
Jun 23, 2021 Euro
Sweden vs Poland
3:2
Jun 5, 2004 Friendly International
Sweden vs Poland
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sweden Compare
Top Goalscorer Nygren B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ayari Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Poland Compare
Top Goalscorer Szymanski S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sweden 57 / 100
Poland 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sweden Poland
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sweden Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Sweden scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.
Poland let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.
Solid form: Sweden remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Sweden VS Poland
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Sweden
(Home) 28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1 Poland
25 Sept
Sweden
2 : 1 Romania
30 Jun
France
3 : 0 Sweden
25 Jun
Japan
1 : 1 Sweden
20 Jun
Netherlands
5 : 1 Sweden
Page 1 of 7
28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1 Poland
25 Sept
Sweden
2 : 1 Romania
15 Jun
Sweden
5 : 1 Tunisia
04 Jun
Sweden
2 : 2 Greece
31 Mar
Sweden
3 : 2 Poland
Page 1 of 4
Poland
(Away) 28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1 Poland
25 Sept
Poland
0 : 0 Bosnia & Herzegovina
03 Jun
Poland
2 : 2 Nigeria
31 May
Poland
0 : 2 Ukraine
31 Mar
Sweden
3 : 2 Poland
Page 1 of 6
28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1 Poland
31 Mar
Sweden
3 : 2 Poland
17 Nov
Malta
2 : 3 Poland
12 Oct
Lithuania
0 : 2 Poland
04 Sept
Netherlands
1 : 1 Poland
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Scotland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 3 | Hungary | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 4 | Georgia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austria | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ireland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 4 | Israel | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:6 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 3 | Poland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 4 | Romania | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
