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Sweden vs Romania Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Strawberry Arena, Solna
Sweden Logo

Sweden

2 - 1
FT
Romania Logo

Romania

Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Isak A.
Assist: Ayari Y.
29' Event
Man D.
Assist: Ratiu A.
37'
Marin R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between Sweden and Romania finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sweden.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sweden
20%
Draws
29%
Romania
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sweden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Romania haven't matched Sweden's recent run of results.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Sweden taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Sweden here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Sweden Clean Sheet 11%
Romania Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sweden Romania
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 14
Draws 5 6
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.9 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Sweden vs Romania
2:1
Nov 15, 2019 Euro
Romania vs Sweden
0:2
Mar 23, 2019 Euro
Sweden vs Romania
2:1
Mar 27, 2018 Friendly International
Romania vs Sweden
1:0
Feb 9, 1997 Friendly International
Romania vs Sweden
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sweden Compare

Top Goalscorer Isak A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gyokeres V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Romania Compare

Top Goalscorer Man D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sweden 38 / 100
Romania 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sweden Romania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sweden Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sweden scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Romania has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Sweden stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sweden VS Romania
2.13 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sweden

(Home)
28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1
Poland
25 Sept
Sweden
2 : 1
Romania
30 Jun
France
3 : 0
Sweden
25 Jun
Japan
1 : 1
Sweden
20 Jun
Netherlands
5 : 1
Sweden
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Romania

(Away)
28 Sept
Romania
2 : 4
Bosnia & Herzegovina
25 Sept
Sweden
2 : 1
Romania
06 Jun
Romania
2 : 1
Wales
02 Jun
Georgia
1 : 1
Romania
31 Mar
Slovakia
2 : 0
Romania
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Switzerland 2 2 0 0 6:0 6
2 Slovenia 2 1 1 0 2:0 4
3 Scotland 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
4 North Macedonia 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Northern Ireland 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
2 Ukraine 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
3 Hungary 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
4 Georgia 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Austria 3 2 1 0 8:4 7
2 Kosovo 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
3 Ireland 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
4 Israel 3 0 1 2 1:6 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
3 Poland 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
4 Romania 2 0 0 2 3:6 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)