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Sweden vs Serbia

World World

Friendly International 2024 Strawberry Arena
Sweden Logo

Sweden

0 - 3
FT
Serbia Logo

Serbia

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sweden play Serbia in the Friendly International 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sweden averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Serbia averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Sweden won 1, Serbia won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 8, 2024 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Sweden and 1.38 for Serbia. This points to a Sweden double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Sweden
15%
Draws
38%
Serbia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sweden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Sweden picked up more points recently compared to Serbia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Sweden Clean Sheet 17%
Serbia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sweden Serbia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.93 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 8, 2024 Friendly International
Sweden vs Serbia
0:3
Sep 24, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Serbia vs Sweden
4:1
Jun 9, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Sweden vs Serbia
0:1
Jun 5, 2012 Friendly International
Sweden vs Serbia
2:1
Apr 1, 2009 Friendly International
Serbia vs Sweden
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sweden Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Serbia Compare

Top Goalscorer Milinkovic-Savic S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mitrovic A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sweden 46 / 100
Serbia 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sweden Serbia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sweden or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sweden attacking → ← attacking Serbia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sweden scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Serbia let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Sweden went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Serbia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 35
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50