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World

World Championship 2026 Strawberry Arena

Slovenia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sweden play Slovenia in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sweden averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Slovenia averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Sweden won 1, Slovenia won 0, and they drew 4. Their last match on Nov 18, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Sweden and 1.38 for Slovenia. This points to a Sweden double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%

Sweden

35%

Draws

30%

Slovenia

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sweden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Sweden picked up more points recently compared to Slovenia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Sweden Clean Sheet 17%

Slovenia Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sweden	Slovenia
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	10
Draws	5	13
Losses	11	7
Goals Scored	1.93	1.03
Goals Conceded	1.67	1.07
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 World Championship

Sweden vs Slovenia

Possession: 59% - 41% Cards: 2 - 0

1:1

Sep 5, 2025 World Championship

Slovenia vs Sweden

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 3 - 2

2:2

Sep 27, 2022 UEFA Nations League

Sweden vs Slovenia

Possession: 41% - 40% Cards: 0 - 0

1:1

Jun 2, 2022 UEFA Nations League

Slovenia vs Sweden

Possession: 52% - 49% Cards: 0 - 4

0:2

May 30, 2016 Friendly International

Sweden vs Slovenia

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 0 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sweden Compare

Top Goalscorer Lundgren G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Slovenia Compare

Top Goalscorer Elsnik T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sweden 35 / 100

Slovenia 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sweden Slovenia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sweden or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +29.5%

3.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sweden attacking → ← attacking Slovenia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sweden scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Slovenia let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Sweden went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Slovenia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 43

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0