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Swindon Supermarine vs Gloucester City

England England

Southern League Premier South 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Hanks J.
55' Event
Hanks J.
58' Event
Watts E.

AI Match Summary

The Southern League Premier South 2024/2025 game between Swindon Supermarine and Gloucester City finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gloucester City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Swindon Supermarine
44%
Draws
20%
Gloucester City
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Gloucester City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Southern League Premier South 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
  • History favors Gloucester City here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Swindon Supermarine Clean Sheet 10%
Gloucester City Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Swindon Supermarine Gloucester City
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 18
Draws 3 3
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 0 2.63
Goals Conceded 4 1
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2025 Southern League Premier South
Swindon Supermarine vs Gloucester City
1:3
Dec 26, 2024 Southern League Premier South
Gloucester City vs Swindon Supermarine
3:1
Jul 12, 2022 Club Friendly
Swindon Supermarine vs Gloucester City
1:1
Jul 17, 2021 Club Friendly
Swindon Supermarine vs Gloucester City
0:2
Apr 13, 2009 Southern Premier League
Swindon Supermarine vs Gloucester City
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Swindon Supermarine Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandes M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Gloucester City Compare

Top Goalscorer Hanks J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Watts E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Swindon Supermarine 34 / 100
Gloucester City 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Swindon Supermarine Gloucester City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GLO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Swindon Supermarine's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Gloucester City let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Swindon Supermarine has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Swindon Supermarine VS Gloucester City
0 Goals Scored 2.63
4 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 75%
100% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Merthyr Town4227105105:4691
2AFC Totton422513485:3588
3Walton & Hersham422411790:5483
4Gloucester City422114781:5377
5Dorchester421918575:4875
6Havant & Waterlooville4221111084:4974
7Hungerford4216111563:5559
8Hanwell Town4215131458:6258
9Taunton Town4213181164:5857
10Wimborne4215121549:5657
11Sholing4214101859:6852
12Gosport Borough4213121753:6151
13Plymouth Parkway421482063:7750
14Poole Town4213101948:6249
15Basingstoke4211151662:6448
16Chertsey Town421452367:8247
17Tiverton4212111939:7147
18Bracknell Town4211131857:7246
19Winchester City4212102054:7446
20Swindon Supermarine421282260:7844
21Frome Town429132039:6040
22Marlow42563145:11521