Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Swinoujscie vs Pogon Szczecin II

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Czaplinski J.
49' Event
Smolinski K.
(Penalty)
86' Event
Turski H.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group II 2025/2026 game between Swinoujscie and Pogon Szczecin II finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pogon Szczecin II.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Swinoujscie
6%
Draws
90%
Pogon Szczecin II
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Pogon Szczecin II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Swinoujscie haven't matched Pogon Szczecin II's recent run of results.
  • Pogon Szczecin II are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular III Liga - Group II 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Swinoujscie Clean Sheet 10%
Pogon Szczecin II Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Swinoujscie Pogon Szczecin II
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 10
Draws 7 4
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.38 3.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 3.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Swinoujscie vs Pogon Szczecin II
1:2
Nov 2, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Pogon Szczecin II vs Swinoujscie
3:3
May 15, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Swinoujscie vs Pogon Szczecin II
0:3
Oct 18, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Pogon Szczecin II vs Swinoujscie
1:0
May 30, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Pogon Szczecin II vs Swinoujscie
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Swinoujscie Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Pogon Szczecin II Compare

Top Goalscorer Czaplinski J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 3.41
Avg xA / game 2.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Swinoujscie 10 / 100
Pogon Szczecin II 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Swinoujscie Pogon Szczecin II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Pogon Szczecin II conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Swinoujscie scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Swinoujscie remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Swinoujscie VS Pogon Szczecin II
1.38 Goals Scored 3.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Swinoujscie

(Home)
25 Jul
Warta Gorzow
1 : 1
Swinoujscie
18 Jul
Swinoujscie
1 : 2
Baltyk Koszalin
11 Jul
Blekitni Stargard
4 : 0
Swinoujscie
11 Jul
Swit Szczecin
3 : 2
Swinoujscie
05 Jul
Swinoujscie
4 : 1
Warta Gorzow
Page 1 of 6

Pogon Szczecin II

(Away)
30 May
Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal
1 : 4
Pogon Szczecin II
24 May
Pogon Szczecin II
13 : 1
Wda Swiecie
17 May
Swinoujscie
1 : 2
Pogon Szczecin II
13 May
Pogon Szczecin II
4 : 0
Elana Torun
09 May
Pogon Szczecin II
2 : 1
Kluczevia Stargard
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Zawisza34255473:2380
2Luzino34244679:3976
3Polonia Sroda Wielkopol34206867:4366
4Lipno Steszew341561347:5451
5Notec Czarnkow341471349:4649
6Lech Poznan II341471367:5449
7Elana Torun341471349:5549
8Swinoujscie341471348:5249
9Wda Swiecie341461444:6648
10Unia Swarzedz341381347:4147
11Kluczevia Stargard341371454:4346
12Blekitni Stargard341291356:5145
13Victoria Wrzesnia341331841:4642
14Pogon Szczecin II341251775:6641
15Nowe Skalmierzyce341091535:4639
16Cartusia Kartuzy341151838:5138
17Tluchowo34871937:6631
18Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal34362520:8415
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)