Sport Picks

Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Jorge Basadre

FBC Melgar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tacna Heroica play FBC Melgar in the Copa de la Liga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tacna Heroica averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. FBC Melgar averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. In past meetings, Tacna Heroica won 1, FBC Melgar won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 12, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Tacna Heroica and 1.69 for FBC Melgar. This points to a Tacna Heroica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Tacna Heroica

28%

Draws

33%

FBC Melgar

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Tacna Heroica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Tacna Heroica picked up more points recently compared to FBC Melgar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%

Tacna Heroica Clean Sheet 13%

FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tacna Heroica	FBC Melgar
Matches Played	29	31
Wins	11	13
Draws	8	9
Losses	10	9
Goals Scored	1.45	1.55
Goals Conceded	1.41	1.16
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 12, 2026 Copa de la Liga

Tacna Heroica vs FBC Melgar

Possession: 60% - 44% Cards: 2 - 2

3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tacna Heroica Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez M.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Linares J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

FBC Melgar Compare

Top Goalscorer Caceres J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tacna Heroica 38 / 100

FBC Melgar 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tacna Heroica FBC Melgar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tacna Heroica or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tacna Heroica attacking → ← attacking FBC Melgar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tacna Heroica scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

FBC Melgar let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Tacna Heroica went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

FBC Melgar lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 48

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Atl.	3	3	0	0	5:1	9
2	Carlos Mannucci	3	2	0	1	6:4	6
3	A. Lima	3	0	1	2	2:5	1
4	Cesar Vallejo	3	0	1	2	2:5	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ADA Jaen	2	1	1	0	2:0	4
2	Juan Pablo II	2	0	2	0	0:0	2
3	Comerciantes Unidos	2	0	1	1	0:2	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cajamarca	2	1	1	0	5:3	4
2	Llacuabamba	2	0	2	0	3:3	2
3	FC Cajamarca	2	0	1	1	2:4	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Grau	2	1	1	0	4:3	4
2	Pirata	2	1	0	1	4:3	3
3	Universitario de Deportes	2	0	1	1	1:3	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sport Huancayo	3	2	1	0	4:2	7
2	AD Tarma	3	1	1	1	3:2	4
3	Alianza Huanuco	3	1	1	1	5:5	4
4	Union Minas	3	0	1	2	2:5	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cienciano	3	3	0	0	6:2	9
2	Deportivo Garcilaso	3	1	1	1	5:3	4
3	Binacional	3	1	0	2	5:9	3
4	Cusco	3	0	1	2	4:6	1

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Los Chankas	2	2	0	4:0	6
2	Santos FC	2	1	1	2:4	3
3	Ayacucho	2	0	2	1:3	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Moquegua	2	1	1	0	3:2	4
2	Tacna Heroica	2	1	0	1	5:5	3
3	FBC Melgar	2	0	1	1	2:3	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sport Boys	2	1	1	0	5:2	4
2	AD Cantolao	2	1	0	1	4:6	3
3	U. San Martin	2	0	1	1	5:6	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sporting Cristal	3	2	1	0	5:2	7
2	Comerciantes FC	3	1	2	0	2:1	5
3	Union Comercio	3	1	0	2	3:4	3
4	Estudiantil CNI	3	0	1	2	2:5	1