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USA

MLS Next Pro Starfire Sports

Real Monarchs

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tacoma Defiance play Real Monarchs in the MLS Next Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tacoma Defiance averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Real Monarchs averaged 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Tacoma Defiance won 1, Real Monarchs won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 22, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Tacoma Defiance and 1.44 for Real Monarchs. This points to a Real Monarchs double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Tacoma Defiance

15%

Draws

54%

Real Monarchs

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Real Monarchs

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Tacoma Defiance picked up more points recently compared to Real Monarchs.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 75%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 75%

Over 3.5 Goals 45%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%

Tacoma Defiance Clean Sheet 16%

Real Monarchs Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tacoma Defiance	Real Monarchs
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	11	18
Draws	0	0
Losses	18	12
Goals Scored	1.45	2
Goals Conceded	1.86	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 22, 2026 MLS Next Pro

Tacoma Defiance vs Real Monarchs

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Sep 1, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance

Possession: 44% - 51% Cards: 3 - 4

3:0

Jul 18, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Tacoma Defiance vs Real Monarchs

Possession: 41% - 56% Cards: 1 - 1

2:3

Jun 12, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance

Possession: 41% - 55% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Sep 14, 2024 MLS Next Pro

Tacoma Defiance vs Real Monarchs

Possession: 51% - 56% Cards: 4 - 3

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tacoma Defiance Compare

Top Goalscorer Bronnik M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Real Monarchs Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tacoma Defiance 31 / 100

Real Monarchs 51 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tacoma Defiance Real Monarchs

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Real Monarchs Win (2)

Secondary Pick Real Monarchs & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.7%

1.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tacoma Defiance attacking → ← attacking Real Monarchs

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tacoma Defiance scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Real Monarchs let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Tacoma Defiance went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Real Monarchs lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 54

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Columbus Crew 2	17	12	5	31:27	34
2	New York Red Bulls II	17	10	7	39:24	32
3	New England Revolution II	16	11	5	21:18	31
4	New York City II	15	8	7	24:23	25
5	Philadelphia Union II	17	8	9	21:21	24
6	CT United FC	16	8	8	28:29	22
7	Toronto FC II	17	7	10	25:32	22
8	FC Cincinnati 2	16	5	11	15:29	14

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	16	12	4	41:22	34
2	Chattanooga	17	11	6	33:28	31
3	Orlando City B	17	10	7	37:31	30
4	Atlanta United 2	16	8	8	34:25	27
5	Chicago Fire II	16	8	8	24:24	24
6	Huntsville City	16	7	9	29:35	21
7	Carolina Core	18	5	13	21:31	17
8	Inter Miami II	15	1	14	13:37	5

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Portland Timbers 2	17	10	7	23:22	32
2	Ventura County	18	10	8	32:27	29
3	San Jose Earthquakes II	15	9	6	37:18	28
4	Los Angeles FC 2	16	9	7	28:28	28
5	Real Monarchs	17	9	8	27:30	23
6	Tacoma Defiance	17	7	10	18:24	21
7	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	18	6	12	24:38	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Austin FC II	16	13	3	34:13	40
2	Houston Dynamo 2	15	12	3	35:13	34
3	St. Louis City 2	17	10	7	28:28	29
4	Minnesota United 2	18	9	9	25:29	26
5	North Texas	15	7	8	26:20	22
6	Sporting Kansas City II	18	4	14	23:50	13
7	Colorado Rapids 2	17	2	15	15:35	9

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Columbus Crew 2	17	12	5	31:27	34
2	Crown Legacy	16	12	4	41:22	34
3	New York Red Bulls II	17	10	7	39:24	32
4	Chattanooga	17	11	6	33:28	31
5	New England Revolution II	16	11	5	21:18	31
6	Orlando City B	17	10	7	37:31	30
7	Atlanta United 2	16	8	8	34:25	27
8	New York City II	15	8	7	24:23	25
9	Philadelphia Union II	17	8	9	21:21	24
10	Chicago Fire II	16	8	8	24:24	24
11	CT United FC	16	8	8	28:29	22
12	Toronto FC II	17	7	10	25:32	22
13	Huntsville City	16	7	9	29:35	21
14	Carolina Core	18	5	13	21:31	17
15	FC Cincinnati 2	16	5	11	15:29	14
16	Inter Miami II	15	1	14	13:37	5

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Austin FC II	16	13	3	34:13	40
2	Houston Dynamo 2	15	12	3	35:13	34
3	Portland Timbers 2	17	10	7	23:22	32
4	Ventura County	18	10	8	32:27	29
5	St. Louis City 2	17	10	7	28:28	29
6	San Jose Earthquakes II	15	9	6	37:18	28
7	Los Angeles FC 2	16	9	7	28:28	28
8	Minnesota United 2	18	9	9	25:29	26
9	Real Monarchs	17	9	8	27:30	23
10	North Texas	15	7	8	26:20	22
11	Tacoma Defiance	17	7	10	18:24	21
12	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	18	6	12	24:38	17
13	Sporting Kansas City II	18	4	14	23:50	13
14	Colorado Rapids 2	17	2	15	15:35	9