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Tacuarembo vs Atenas

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tacuarembo play Atenas in the Segunda Division 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tacuarembo averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Atenas averaged 1.58 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. In past meetings, Tacuarembo won 0, Atenas won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 27, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Tacuarembo and 1.38 for Atenas. This points to a Atenas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Tacuarembo
32%
Draws
40%
Atenas
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Atenas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Tacuarembo picked up more points recently compared to Atenas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Tacuarembo Clean Sheet 17%
Atenas Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tacuarembo Atenas
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 9 17
Draws 12 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.06 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Tacuarembo
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Tacuarembo
1:0
Nov 15, 2025 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Tacuarembo
2:2
Nov 9, 2025 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs Atenas
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Tacuarembo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tacuarembo Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Atenas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tacuarembo 29 / 100
Atenas 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tacuarembo Atenas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Atenas or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tacuarembo attacking → ← attacking Atenas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tacuarembo scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Atenas let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Tacuarembo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Atenas lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 57
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25