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Tacuarembo vs La Luz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tacuarembo host La Luz in the Segunda Division. Little to choose between these two on current form. La Luz have shipped 1.11 goals a game lately, while Tacuarembo have conceded 1.21 and scored 0.82. Head-to-head, Tacuarembo have won 1 to La Luz's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Jul 13, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.13 - 1.13) back La Luz to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Tacuarembo
30%
Draws
52%
La Luz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: La Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and La Luz come out ahead of Tacuarembo on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Segunda Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Tacuarembo Clean Sheet 20%
La Luz Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tacuarembo La Luz
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 6 8
Draws 10 11
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0.82 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 13, 2026 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Tacuarembo
2:0
Mar 17, 2026 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs La Luz
1:1
Aug 30, 2025 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs La Luz
1:1
Jun 7, 2025 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Tacuarembo
1:2
Mar 30, 2025 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs La Luz
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tacuarembo 36 / 100
La Luz 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tacuarembo La Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick La Luz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tacuarembo scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Tacuarembo stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

La Luz has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tacuarembo VS La Luz
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tacuarembo

(Home)
03 Oct
Tacuarembo
0 : 1
Atenas
28 Sept
Paysandu FC
2 : 2
Tacuarembo
20 Sept
Tacuarembo
1 : 1
Huracan FC
12 Sept
Uruguay Montevideo FC
2 : 2
Tacuarembo
06 Sept
Tacuarembo
0 : 1
Club Oriental De Futbol
Page 1 of 6

La Luz

(Away)
04 Oct
La Luz
3 : 2
River Plate Montevideo
27 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 2
La Luz
19 Sept
La Luz
0 : 1
Atenas
12 Sept
Paysandu FC
0 : 1
La Luz
04 Sept
La Luz
1 : 3
Huracan FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atenas 21 12 4 5 30:18 40
2 Rentistas 21 9 6 6 26:23 33
3 Club Oriental De Futbol 21 8 8 5 29:22 32
4 Plaza Colonia 21 9 5 7 26:21 32
5 River Plate Montevideo 21 8 6 7 31:26 30
6 Colon 21 8 6 7 20:23 30
7 Fenix 21 7 8 6 27:24 29
8 Cerrito 21 7 8 6 27:24 29
9 La Luz 21 7 6 8 19:24 27
10 Huracan FC 21 7 5 9 22:28 26
11 Paysandu FC 21 7 4 10 26:28 25
12 Miramar 21 6 7 8 23:26 25
13 Tacuarembo 21 6 6 9 16:23 24
14 Uruguay Montevideo FC 21 4 5 12 19:31 17
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya 2027 (Apertura)