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Taffs Well vs Caerau Ely

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Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Taffs Well and Caerau Ely finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caerau Ely.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Taffs Well
15%
Draws
46%
Caerau Ely
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Caerau Ely come out ahead of Taffs Well on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Caerau Ely's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Caerau Ely have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Taffs Well Clean Sheet 18%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Taffs Well Caerau Ely
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 3 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 22 9
Goals Scored 1.13 2.39
Goals Conceded 2.67 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 0.72 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2025 Club Friendly
Taffs Well vs Caerau Ely
0:4
Feb 28, 2025 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Taffs Well
3:1
Aug 9, 2024 Cymru South
Taffs Well vs Caerau Ely
0:3
Mar 22, 2024 Cymru South
Taffs Well vs Caerau Ely
1:2
Feb 27, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Taffs Well
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Taffs Well 20 / 100
Caerau Ely 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Taffs Well Caerau Ely

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Taffs Well scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Caerau Ely's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Taffs Well remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Caerau Ely
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 0.25
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Taffs Well

(Home)
18 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
5 : 1
Taffs Well
20 Sept
Taffs Well
2 : 1
Abertillery Excelsiors
04 Jul
Taffs Well
0 : 4
Caerau Ely
25 Jun
Taffs Well
4 : 1
Cwmbran Town
21 Jun
Taffs Well
1 : 5
Carmarthen Town
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Caerau Ely

(Away)
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5
Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4
Caerau Ely
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
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