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Taffs Well vs Carmarthen Town

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Thomas L.
28' Event
Ferreira G.
33' Event
Thomas L.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2024/2025 game between Taffs Well and Carmarthen Town finished 3-7, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carmarthen Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Taffs Well
15%
Draws
46%
Carmarthen Town
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carmarthen Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Taffs Well haven't matched Carmarthen Town's recent run of results.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Carmarthen Town taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Carmarthen Town have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Taffs Well Clean Sheet 10%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Taffs Well Carmarthen Town
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 3 14
Draws 5 8
Losses 22 11
Goals Scored 1.13 2.15
Goals Conceded 2.67 1.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 2.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2025 Club Friendly
Taffs Well vs Carmarthen Town
1:5
Feb 21, 2025 Cymru South
Taffs Well vs Carmarthen Town
3:7
Jan 4, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Taffs Well
2:0
Mar 2, 2024 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Taffs Well
2:0
Sep 8, 2023 Cymru South
Taffs Well vs Carmarthen Town
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Taffs Well Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ellis L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Carmarthen Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Thomas L.
5 Goals
Assists Leader Daley N.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.86
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Taffs Well 10 / 100
Carmarthen Town 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Taffs Well Carmarthen Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmarthen Town Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carmarthen Town has conceded goals in 82% of their last 33 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Taffs Well found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Taffs Well remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Carmarthen Town
0 Goals Scored 3
0 Goals Conceded 2
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Taffs Well

(Home)
18 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
5 : 1
Taffs Well
20 Sept
Taffs Well
2 : 1
Abertillery Excelsiors
04 Jul
Taffs Well
0 : 4
Caerau Ely
25 Jun
Taffs Well
4 : 1
Cwmbran Town
21 Jun
Taffs Well
1 : 5
Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6

Carmarthen Town

(Away)
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2
Carmarthen Town
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4
Treowen
14 Aug
Carmarthen Town
3 : 1
Afan Lido
08 Aug
Newport City
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Llanelli 30 18 10 2 64:25 64
2 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 17 8 5 53:33 59
3 Newport City 30 16 6 8 50:32 54
4 Trefelin 30 15 8 7 54:41 53
5 Pontypridd United 30 16 5 9 54:44 53
6 Cambrian United 30 13 11 6 50:38 47
7 Carmarthen Town 30 12 9 9 55:44 45
8 Baglan Dragons 30 11 10 9 44:34 43
9 Llantwit Major 30 11 10 9 37:34 43
10 Ammanford Town 30 11 3 16 47:50 36
11 Afan Lido 30 8 10 12 44:51 34
12 Caerau Ely 30 9 5 16 42:43 32
13 Cwmbran Celtic 30 9 3 18 39:62 30
14 Penrhiwceiber Rangers 30 7 7 16 30:57 28
15 Goytre Utd 30 6 5 19 41:72 23
16 Taffs Well 30 3 6 21 32:76 15
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Main)