Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Taguatinga vs Santa Maria

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Marlon
(Penalty)
71' Event
Marlon
90' Event
Matheus

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2023 game between Taguatinga and Santa Maria finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Taguatinga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Taguatinga
15%
Draws
0%
Santa Maria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Taguatinga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Taguatinga come out ahead of Santa Maria on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Taguatinga's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Taguatinga Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Maria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Taguatinga Santa Maria
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.75 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.32 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 3.44 0.28
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2023 Brasiliense
Taguatinga vs Santa Maria
3:1
Feb 13, 2022 Brasiliense
Santa Maria vs Taguatinga
2:1
Feb 22, 2021 Brasiliense
Taguatinga vs Santa Maria
1:0
Mar 21, 2019 Brasiliense
Santa Maria vs Taguatinga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Taguatinga Compare

Top Goalscorer Marlon
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.65
Avg xA / game 1.72

Santa Maria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.25
Avg xA / game 0.16

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Taguatinga 95 / 100
Santa Maria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Taguatinga Santa Maria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Taguatinga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Maria has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Santa Maria lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Taguatinga scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Taguatinga VS Santa Maria
2.88 Goals Scored 0.17
0.38 Goals Conceded 4
75% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 67%
38% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Taguatinga

(Home)
12 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
0 : 2
Taguatinga
06 Sept
Taguatinga
1 : 0
Canaa EC
29 Aug
Candango
0 : 4
Taguatinga
20 Oct
Taguatinga
0 : 1
Legiao
12 Oct
Legiao
1 : 1
Taguatinga
Page 1 of 6

Santa Maria

(Away)
10 Mar
Capital
7 : 1
Santa Maria
03 Mar
Santa Maria
0 : 4
Planaltina
25 Feb
Real Brasilia
1 : 0
Santa Maria
18 Feb
Santa Maria
0 : 5
Gama
08 Feb
Paranoa
1 : 0
Santa Maria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Brasilia 9 5 3 1 13:6 18
2 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 18:9 15
3 Capital 9 4 3 2 11:8 15
4 Paranoa 9 4 3 2 14:15 15
5 Gama 9 4 2 3 8:6 14
6 Ceilandia 9 4 2 3 12:11 14
7 Samambaia 9 4 1 4 16:16 13
8 Santa Maria 9 2 1 6 9:14 7
9 Taguatinga 9 2 1 6 12:19 7
10 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 2 1 6 9:18 7
Promotion - Brasiliense 2023 (Play Offs)