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Tahiti U17 vs New Caledonia U17

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U17 2011 North Harbour Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tahiti U17 play New Caledonia U17 in the OFC Championship U17 2011. Tahiti U17 are favorites here. Recently, Tahiti U17 averaged 3.53 goals scored and 0.74 conceded. New Caledonia U17 averaged 1.91 goals scored and 3.34 conceded. In past meetings, Tahiti U17 won 2, New Caledonia U17 won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 25, 2023 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 3.26 for Tahiti U17 and 1.43 for New Caledonia U17. This points to a Tahiti U17 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Tahiti U17
15%
Draws
28%
New Caledonia U17
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tahiti U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Tahiti U17 picked up more points recently compared to New Caledonia U17.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (3.26 vs 1.43 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Tahiti U17 Clean Sheet 17%
New Caledonia U17 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti U17 New Caledonia U17
Matches Played 19 32
Wins 14 12
Draws 1 3
Losses 4 17
Goals Scored 3.53 1.91
Goals Conceded 0.74 3.34
Expected Goals (xG) 3.40 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.60 3.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2023 OFC Championship U16
New Caledonia U17 vs Tahiti U17
2:1
Feb 15, 2017 OFC Championship U16
Tahiti U17 vs New Caledonia U17
1:1
Jan 25, 2015 OFC Championship U16
Tahiti U17 vs New Caledonia U17
3:2
Jan 15, 2011 OFC Championship U16
Tahiti U17 vs New Caledonia U17
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti U17 55 / 100
New Caledonia U17 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti U17 New Caledonia U17

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tahiti U17 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Tahiti U17 & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.3%
2.04
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8%
1.35
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tahiti U17 attacking → ← attacking New Caledonia U17

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tahiti U17 scored in 95% of their last 19 games.

New Caledonia U17 let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Tahiti U17 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

New Caledonia U17 lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 39
3.40 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
0.60 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1New Zealand U17440013:112
2Vanuatu U17430113:59
3Papua New Guinea U1742024:76
4Fiji U17410310:63
5American Samoa U1740041:220
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tahiti U17440014:212
2Solomon Islands U17430122:49
3New Caledonia U17420227:66
4Cook Islands U1741038:153
5Tonga U1740042:460