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Tahiti vs Samoa

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Pacific Games
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AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tahiti
15%
Draws
34%
Samoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tahiti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Tahiti carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Tahiti are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Tahiti have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tahiti, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tahiti have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 16%
Samoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti Samoa
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 14 11
Draws 4 1
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 2.18 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.25 3.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 World Championship
Samoa vs Tahiti
0:3
Jun 16, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Tahiti vs Samoa
2:0
Nov 27, 2023 Pacific Games
Tahiti vs Samoa
2:1
May 29, 2016 World Championship
Tahiti vs Samoa
4:0
Jun 1, 2012 World Championship
Samoa vs Tahiti
1:10

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti 84 / 100
Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti Samoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tahiti Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samoa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Tahiti scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Tahiti remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tahiti VS Samoa
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tahiti

(Home)
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
11 Oct
New Zealand
3 : 0
Tahiti
30 Jun
Tahiti
2 : 1
Fiji
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Samoa

(Away)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

5th place
Tahiti 2
Papua New Guinea 0
Samoa 3
Cook Islands 0
Semi-finals
Tahiti 2
Samoa 1
Cook Islands 0
Papua New Guinea 3