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Tahiti vs Vanuatu

World World

World Championship 2026 Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Spokeyjack J.
Own Goal
43'
Degrumelle M.
62'
Sub
Cooper M. In: Tangis K.
Out: Cooper M.

AI Match Summary

Tahiti in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tahiti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Tahiti
6%
Draws
90%
Vanuatu
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Vanuatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Vanuatu haven't matched Tahiti's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Vanuatu taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tahiti here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 20%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti Vanuatu
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 10
Draws 4 4
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.25 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2024 World Championship
Tahiti vs Vanuatu
2:0
Mar 17, 2022 World Championship
Tahiti vs Vanuatu
0:0
Jun 5, 2012 World Championship
Tahiti vs Vanuatu
4:1
Jun 6, 2004 World Championship
Tahiti vs Vanuatu
2:1
Jun 4, 2001 World Championship
Vanuatu vs Tahiti
1:6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti 10 / 100
Vanuatu 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti Vanuatu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Tahiti's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Tahiti stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tahiti VS Vanuatu
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tahiti

(Home)
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
11 Oct
New Zealand
3 : 0
Tahiti
30 Jun
Tahiti
2 : 1
Fiji
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Vanuatu

(Away)
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
06 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Fiji
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
20 Nov
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Solomon Islands
17 Nov
Vanuatu
2 : 0
Fiji
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League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1New Caledonia32107:47
2Fiji31205:45
3Solomon Islands31024:53
4Papua New Guinea30125:81
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1New Zealand330019:19
2Tahiti32015:36
3Vanuatu31025:113
4Samoa30031:150
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)