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Tahiti vs Vanuatu Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

World Championship 2026 Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Tahiti Logo

Tahiti

2 - 0
FT
Vanuatu Logo

Vanuatu

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Spokeyjack J.
Own Goal
43'
Degrumelle M.
62'
Sub
Cooper M. In: Tangis K.
Out: Cooper M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tahiti in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tahiti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Tahiti
20%
Draws
38%
Vanuatu
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tahiti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Vanuatu haven't matched Tahiti's recent run of results.
  • 38% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tahiti here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 16%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti Vanuatu
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 13 10
Draws 4 4
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.86 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.36 2.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2024 World Championship
Tahiti vs Vanuatu
2:0
Mar 17, 2022 World Championship
Tahiti vs Vanuatu
0:0
Jun 5, 2012 World Championship
Tahiti vs Vanuatu
4:1
Jun 6, 2004 World Championship
Tahiti vs Vanuatu
2:1
Jun 4, 2001 World Championship
Vanuatu vs Tahiti
1:6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti 36 / 100
Vanuatu 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti Vanuatu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanuatu Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Tahiti's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Tahiti stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tahiti VS Vanuatu
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tahiti

(Home)
01 Oct
Cook Islands
3 : 2
Tahiti
27 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tahiti
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
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Vanuatu

(Away)
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Solomon Islands
3 : 3
Vanuatu
21 Sept
Fiji
0 : 1
Vanuatu
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 3 2 1 0 7:4 7
2 Fiji 3 1 2 0 5:4 5
3 Solomon Islands 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
4 Papua New Guinea 3 0 1 2 5:8 1
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand 3 3 0 0 19:1 9
2 Tahiti 3 2 0 1 5:3 6
3 Vanuatu 3 1 0 2 5:11 3
4 Samoa 3 0 0 3 1:15 0
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)