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Tahiti W vs Vanuatu W

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tahiti W play Vanuatu W in the OFC Nations Cup Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tahiti W averaged 0.96 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Vanuatu W averaged 0.89 goals scored and 2.43 conceded. In past meetings, Tahiti W won 1, Vanuatu W won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jul 14, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.83 for Tahiti W and 1.35 for Vanuatu W. This points to a Vanuatu W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Tahiti W
26%
Draws
43%
Vanuatu W
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Vanuatu W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Tahiti W picked up more points recently compared to Vanuatu W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.83 vs 1.35 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Tahiti W Clean Sheet 18%
Vanuatu W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti W Vanuatu W
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 3 7
Draws 8 3
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 0.96 0.89
Goals Conceded 2.07 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.67 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.83 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2025 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tahiti W vs Vanuatu W
0:1
Nov 28, 2023 Pacific Games Women
Tahiti W vs Vanuatu W
1:2
Jul 20, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tahiti W vs Vanuatu W
0:0
Jul 18, 2019 Pacific Games Women
Vanuatu W vs Tahiti W
0:0
Oct 1, 2010 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tahiti W vs Vanuatu W
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tahiti W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.34

Vanuatu W Compare

Top Goalscorer Poida A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti W 32 / 100
Vanuatu W 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti W Vanuatu W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vanuatu W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tahiti W attacking → ← attacking Vanuatu W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tahiti W scored in 56% of their last 27 games.

Vanuatu W let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Tahiti W went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Vanuatu W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 24
0.67 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.83 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00