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Tai Po vs Lee Man Warriors

Hong Kong Hong Kong

Premier League Tai Po Sports Ground
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tai Po play Lee Man Warriors in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tai Po averaged 2.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. Lee Man Warriors averaged 2.43 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Tai Po won 2, Lee Man Warriors won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Tai Po and 1.50 for Lee Man Warriors. This points to a Tai Po double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Tai Po
18%
Draws
38%
Lee Man Warriors
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Tai Po

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Tai Po picked up more points recently compared to Lee Man Warriors.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Tai Po Clean Sheet 16%
Lee Man Warriors Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tai Po Lee Man Warriors
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 20 17
Draws 5 6
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 2.22 2.43
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:3
Mar 11, 2026 League Cup
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
1:0
Jan 17, 2026 Premier League
Tai Po vs Lee Man Warriors
3:5
Sep 27, 2025 Senior Shield
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:3
Aug 30, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tai Po Compare

Top Goalscorer Chan Siu-Kwan P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paulinho Simionato
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Lee Man Warriors Compare

Top Goalscorer Baffoe N.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Mikael
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tai Po 43 / 100
Lee Man Warriors 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tai Po Lee Man Warriors

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tai Po or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.4%
1.52
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tai Po attacking → ← attacking Lee Man Warriors

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tai Po scored in 94% of their last 32 games.

Lee Man Warriors let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Tai Po went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Lee Man Warriors lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

65 Points in last 5 57
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Kitchee18162047:1550
2Lee Man Warriors18106247:1936
3North District1887336:2731
4Tai Po1894536:2631
5Eastern AA1874729:2825
6Kowloon City1863922:3321
7Eastern District1854915:1519
8Southern District18531018:2818
9Hong Kong Rangers18521120:3817
10Hong Kong FC18111612:534