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Tai Po vs Sun Hei

Hong Kong Hong Kong

Senior Shield 2011/2012
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Sun Hei advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Tai Po
15%
Draws
28%
Sun Hei
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tai Po

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tai Po come out ahead of Sun Hei on wins alone.
  • 28% — that's where the model lands on Sun Hei taking it.
  • Tai Po have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sun Hei, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sun Hei have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Tai Po Clean Sheet 20%
Sun Hei Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tai Po Sun Hei
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 23 9
Draws 2 5
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 2.03 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2012 Premier League
Sun Hei vs Tai Po
2:1
Nov 27, 2011 Senior Shield
Sun Hei vs Tai Po
2:1
Nov 19, 2011 Premier League
Tai Po vs Sun Hei
0:1
Oct 30, 2011 Senior Shield
Tai Po vs Sun Hei
1:2
Oct 30, 2011 Club Friendly
Tai Po vs Sun Hei
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tai Po 20 / 100
Sun Hei 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tai Po Sun Hei

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sun Hei Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tai Po found the back of the net in 92% of recent matches (38 games).

Sun Hei let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Away concern: Sun Hei has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tai Po VS -
2 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tai Po

(Home)
17 Sept
Adelaide Utd
3 : 0
Tai Po
12 Sept
Tai Po
1 : 2
Hong Kong FC
05 Sept
Tai Po
3 : 2
Hong Kong Rangers
30 Aug
Tai Po
4 : 1
Eastern AA
23 Aug
North District
2 : 0
Tai Po
Page 1 of 8

Sun Hei

(Away)
12 Apr
Sun Hei
0 : 1
Eastern AA
07 Dec
Southern District
2 : 1
Sun Hei
02 Nov
Sun Hei
2 : 1
Tuen Mun
01 May
Yangon United
2 : 0
Sun Hei
24 Apr
Sun Hei
0 : 3
New Radiant
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Tuen Mun 3
King Fung Football Club 0
TBD -
Citizen -
Tai Po -
TBD -
TBD -
Sun Hei -
Pegasus 2
Kitchee 1
TBD -
Hong Kong Rangers -
Sham Shui Po -
TBD -
TBD -
South China -
Quarter-finals
Tuen Mun 4
Citizen 3
Tai Po 2
Sun Hei 4
Pegasus 9
Hong Kong Rangers 0
Sham Shui Po 2
South China 3
Semi-finals
Tuen Mun 2
Sun Hei 3
Pegasus 2
South China 3
Final
Sun Hei 2
South China 1