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Tajikistan vs Belarus

World World

Friendly International 2025 Republican central stadium, Dushanbe
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Zinovich K.
46'
Sub
Kamolov A. In: Mabatshoev S.
Out: Kamolov A.
46'
Sub
Samiev S. In: Soirov R.
Out: Samiev S.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between Tajikistan and Belarus finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Belarus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Tajikistan
35%
Draws
38%
Belarus
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Belarus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tajikistan come out ahead of Belarus on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Tajikistan Clean Sheet 25%
Belarus Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tajikistan Belarus
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 13 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.52 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2025 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Belarus
0:5
Sep 4, 2014 Friendly International
Belarus vs Tajikistan
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tajikistan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Belarus Compare

Top Goalscorer Lisakovich V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Melnichenko T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tajikistan 33 / 100
Belarus 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tajikistan Belarus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belarus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Tajikistan scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Defensive concern: Belarus conceded in 62% of 26 recent games.

Recent resilience: Tajikistan stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tajikistan VS Belarus
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tajikistan

(Home)
23 Sept
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Tajikistan
09 Jun
Tajikistan
1 : 1
India
05 Jun
Tajikistan
3 : 1
India
31 Mar
Tajikistan
1 : 1
Philippines
18 Nov
Timor-Leste
0 : 5
Tajikistan
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Belarus

(Away)
09 Jun
Belarus
2 : 2
Burkina Faso
05 Jun
Belarus
4 : 1
Syria
29 Mar
Armenia
1 : 2
Belarus
26 Mar
Cyprus
0 : 1
Belarus
18 Nov
Belarus
0 : 0
Greece
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