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Stadium Background

Tajikistan vs Iran

Asia Asia

CAFA Nations Cup
Tajikistan Logo

Tajikistan

2 - 2
FT
Iran Logo

Iran

Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Mohebi M.
41'
Ghorbani M.
46'
Sub
Yousefi A. In: Taremi M.
Out: Yousefi A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Tajikistan
35%
Draws
29%
Iran
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tajikistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Iran carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Tajikistan's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Iran arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Tajikistan Clean Sheet 20%
Iran Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tajikistan Iran
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 13 16
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.52 1.96
Goals Conceded 1.11 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.16
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2025 CAFA Nations Cup
Tajikistan vs Iran
2:2
Oct 13, 2020 Friendly International
Iran vs Tajikistan
0:0
Nov 6, 2012 Friendly International
Iran vs Tajikistan
6:1
Nov 27, 2000 World Championship
Iran vs Tajikistan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tajikistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Samiev S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dzhuraboev Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Iran Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohebi M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tajikistan 67 / 100
Iran 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tajikistan Iran

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tajikistan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.25 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Tajikistan remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Tajikistan's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Iran let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tajikistan VS Iran
1.86 Goals Scored 1.88
0.43 Goals Conceded 0.75
71% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tajikistan

(Home)
09 Jun
Tajikistan
1 : 1
India
05 Jun
Tajikistan
3 : 1
India
31 Mar
Tajikistan
1 : 1
Philippines
18 Nov
Timor-Leste
0 : 5
Tajikistan
14 Oct
Maldives
0 : 3
Tajikistan
Page 1 of 6

Iran

(Away)
27 Jun
Egypt
1 : 1
Iran
21 Jun
Belgium
0 : 0
Iran
16 Jun
Iran
2 : 2
New Zealand
04 Jun
Iran
2 : 0
Mali
29 May
Iran
3 : 1
Gambia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uzbekistan 3 2 1 0 7:2 7
2 Oman 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
3 Turkmenistan 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
4 Kyrgyzstan 3 0 1 2 2:7 1
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iran 3 2 1 0 8:3 7
2 India 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
3 Tajikistan 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
4 Afghanistan 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)