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World

World Championship 2026 Pamir Stadium

Pakistan

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tajikistan play Pakistan in the World Championship 2026. Tajikistan are favorites here. Recently, Tajikistan averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Pakistan averaged 0.47 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. In past meetings, Tajikistan won 4, Pakistan won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 11, 2024 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Tajikistan and 0.94 for Pakistan. This points to a Tajikistan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%

Tajikistan

15%

Draws

15%

Pakistan

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tajikistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Tajikistan picked up more points recently compared to Pakistan.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%

Tajikistan Clean Sheet 24%

Pakistan Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tajikistan	Pakistan
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	14	4
Draws	6	4
Losses	9	22
Goals Scored	1.62	0.47
Goals Conceded	1.07	2.1
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2024 World Championship

Tajikistan vs Pakistan

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 3 - 3

3:0

Nov 21, 2023 World Championship

Pakistan vs Tajikistan

Possession: 45% - 48% Cards: 2 - 1

1:6

Mar 17, 2013 AFC Challenge Cup

Tajikistan vs Pakistan

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 4 - 0

1:0

Apr 4, 2006 AFC Challenge Cup

Pakistan vs Tajikistan

Possession: 44% - 57% Cards: 1 - 3

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tajikistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Mabatshoev S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Safarov M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

Pakistan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tajikistan 68 / 100

Pakistan 16 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tajikistan Pakistan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tajikistan Win (1)

Secondary Pick Tajikistan & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +12.7%

1.61

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tajikistan attacking → ← attacking Pakistan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tajikistan scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Pakistan let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Tajikistan went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Pakistan lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 16

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Qatar	6	5	1	0	18:3	16
2	Kuwait	6	2	1	3	6:6	7
3	Afghanistan	6	1	2	3	3:14	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Japan	6	6	0	0	24:0	18
2	North Korea	6	3	0	3	11:7	9
3	Syria	6	2	1	3	9:12	7
4	Myanmar	6	0	1	5	3:28	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Korea	6	5	1	0	20:1	16
2	China	6	2	2	2	9:9	8
3	Thailand	6	2	2	2	9:9	8
4	Singapore	6	0	1	5	5:24	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oman	6	4	1	1	11:2	13
2	Kyrgyzstan	6	3	2	1	13:7	11
3	Malaysia	6	3	1	2	9:9	10
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	2:17	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iran	6	4	2	0	16:4	14
2	Uzbekistan	6	4	2	0	13:4	14
3	Turkmenistan	6	0	2	4	4:14	2
4	Hong Kong	6	0	2	4	4:15	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iraq	6	6	0	0	17:2	18
2	Indonesia	6	3	1	2	8:8	10
3	Vietnam	6	2	0	4	6:10	6
4	Philippines	6	0	1	5	3:14	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jordan	6	4	1	1	16:4	13
2	Saudi Arabia	6	4	1	1	12:3	13
3	Tajikistan	6	2	2	2	11:7	8
4	Pakistan	6	0	0	6	1:26	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	United Arab Emirates	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Bahrain	6	3	2	1	11:3	11
3	Yemen	6	1	2	3	5:9	5
4	Nepal	6	0	1	5	2:20	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Australia	6	6	0	0	22:0	18
2	Palestine	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
3	Lebanon	6	1	3	2	5:8	6
4	Bangladesh	6	0	1	5	1:20	1