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Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W

USA USA

USL Super League Women 2025/2026 Riverfront Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Barry C.
14' Event
McNeill S.
Assist: Pluck M.
27'
Mccain A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this USL Super League Women 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Tampa Bay Sun W
6%
Draws
90%
Lexington W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Lexington W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tampa Bay Sun W haven't matched Lexington W's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Lexington W a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular USL Super League Women 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Tampa Bay Sun W Clean Sheet 12%
Lexington W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay Sun W Lexington W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 16
Draws 9 11
Losses 14 3
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
1:0
Apr 18, 2026 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
4:0
Nov 23, 2025 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W
1:1
May 10, 2025 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
0:3
Apr 12, 2025 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tampa Bay Sun W Compare

Top Goalscorer McNeill S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Lexington W Compare

Top Goalscorer Barry C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay Sun W 10 / 100
Lexington W 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay Sun W Lexington W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEX Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tampa Bay Sun W scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Lexington W conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Tampa Bay Sun W remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tampa Bay Sun W VS Lexington W
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lexington W281411350:2453
2Sporting Jax W28165754:3253
3Carolina Ascent W28156739:2751
4Dallas Trinity W281171036:4040
5Spokane Zephyr W28109934:2839
6DC Power W28891134:3233
7Brooklyn W28681431:4426
8Tampa Bay Sun W28591427:4624
9Fort Lauderdale United W28581530:6223