Sport Picks
Tampa Bay vs Birmingham Legion - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, FL 
Match Events
30'
30'
Paterson AJ
Own Goal
39'
39'
Myers M.
46'
46'
Sub
Paterson AJ In: Diop H.
Out: Paterson AJ
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Tampa Bay and Birmingham Legion finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tampa Bay.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tampa Bay
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Tampa Bay carry the better recent record into this one.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Tampa Bay taking it.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 16%
Birmingham Legion Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tampa Bay | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 7 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 6 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.61 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Birmingham Legion
4:0
Mar 8, 2026 USL Championship
Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay
0:1
Sep 17, 2025 USL Championship
Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay
1:4
May 3, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Birmingham Legion
2:2
Sep 12, 2024 USL Championship
Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tampa Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Myers M.
3 Goals Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97
Birmingham Legion Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tampa Bay 57 / 100
Birmingham Legion 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tampa Bay Birmingham Legion
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tampa Bay Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tampa Bay scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Birmingham Legion has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Tampa Bay stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tampa Bay VS Birmingham Legion
1.25 Goals Scored 2.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 100%
Recent Form & Match History
Tampa Bay
(Home) 10 Oct
Indy Eleven
1 : 3 Tampa Bay
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
05 Sept
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Brooklyn FC
15 Aug
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Rhode Island
12 Aug
Tampa Bay
0 : 1 Louisville City
Page 1 of 3
Birmingham Legion
(Away) 03 Oct
Detroit City
1 : 0 Birmingham Legion
23 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 0 Brooklyn FC
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
17 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 4 New Mexico
12 Sept
Birmingham Legion
2 : 2 Charleston
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Detroit City
1 : 0 Birmingham Legion
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
05 Sept
Indy Eleven
2 : 2 Birmingham Legion
29 Aug
Hartford Athletic
3 : 2 Birmingham Legion
16 Aug
Colorado Springs
3 : 2 Birmingham Legion
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 49:26 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 34:20 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 52:33 | 46 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 30:28 | 41 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 45:42 | 40 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 30:28 | 39 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39:30 | 38 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 38:47 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34:36 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 34:44 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48:36 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44:33 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 38:26 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32:25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41:38 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37:44 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 29:29 | 39 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37:41 | 36 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33:35 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 30:50 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
