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Tampa Bay vs Detroit City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Championship Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, FL
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tampa Bay host Detroit City in the USL Championship. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Tampa Bay have averaged 1.69 scored and 0.9 conceded recently, against Detroit City's 1.18 scored and 0.86 conceded. Past meetings favor Detroit City slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 22, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (0.75 xG vs 0.69) point toward Tampa Bay. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Tampa Bay
20%
Draws
47%
Detroit City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Detroit City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Detroit City haven't matched Tampa Bay's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 20%
Detroit City Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay Detroit City
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.69 1.18
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 USL Championship
Detroit City vs Tampa Bay
1:0
Oct 25, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Detroit City
1:1
Aug 23, 2025 USL Championship
Detroit City vs Tampa Bay
2:0
Nov 2, 2024 USL Championship
Detroit City vs Tampa Bay
1:2
Aug 21, 2024 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Detroit City
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay 36 / 100
Detroit City 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay Detroit City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Detroit City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tampa Bay's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Detroit City let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Tampa Bay has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tampa Bay VS Detroit City
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tampa Bay

(Home)
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2
Miami FC
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0
Tampa Bay
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0
Birmingham Legion
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1
Tampa Bay
05 Sept
Tampa Bay
2 : 0
Brooklyn FC
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Detroit City

(Away)
03 Oct
Detroit City
1 : 0
Birmingham Legion
30 Sept
Brooklyn FC
1 : 3
Detroit City
26 Sept
Detroit City
0 : 0
Colorado Springs
19 Sept
Detroit City
1 : 0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0
Detroit City
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tampa Bay 27 15 7 5 46:25 52
2 Detroit City 27 13 8 6 33:20 47
3 Charleston 26 14 4 8 52:31 46
4 Hartford Athletic 26 9 12 5 29:26 39
5 Rhode Island 26 11 5 10 39:29 38
6 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27 11 5 11 28:27 38
7 Louisville City 26 10 7 9 43:42 37
8 Miami FC 28 9 9 10 38:45 36
9 Indy Eleven 27 9 7 11 33:33 34
10 Loudoun United 26 4 12 10 32:44 24
11 Birmingham Legion 26 4 11 11 36:43 23
12 Brooklyn FC 27 4 6 17 27:55 18
13 Sporting Jax 27 3 5 19 32:73 14
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Paso Locomotive 27 14 5 8 46:35 47
2 New Mexico 27 13 7 7 41:32 46
3 Lexington 28 13 5 10 49:33 44
4 Sacramento Republic 27 11 11 5 37:25 44
5 FC Tulsa 28 11 10 7 32:25 43
6 Colorado Springs 27 11 7 9 40:37 40
7 Orange County SC 27 10 9 8 36:42 39
8 San Antonio FC 27 9 11 7 29:29 38
9 Las Vegas Lights 27 10 6 11 35:38 36
10 Oakland Roots 27 8 10 9 33:35 34
11 Phoenix Rising 27 8 9 10 36:40 33
12 Monterey Bay 27 5 6 16 29:47 21
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)