Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tampa Bay vs Lexington

USA USA

USL Championship Al Lang Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tampa Bay play Lexington in the USL Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tampa Bay averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Lexington averaged 1.74 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, Tampa Bay won 0, Lexington won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 4, 2026 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Tampa Bay and 1.38 for Lexington. This points to a Tampa Bay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Tampa Bay
19%
Draws
34%
Lexington
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Tampa Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Tampa Bay picked up more points recently compared to Lexington.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 17%
Lexington Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay Lexington
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 19 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.83 1.74
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Lexington
1:4
May 24, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs Tampa Bay
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tampa Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Vivi Quesada G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Lexington Compare

Top Goalscorer Zengue X.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nick Firmino
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay 46 / 100
Lexington 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay Lexington

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tampa Bay or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tampa Bay attacking → ← attacking Lexington

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tampa Bay scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Lexington let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Tampa Bay went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Lexington lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

64 Points in last 5 40
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tampa Bay1594224:1231
2Charleston1582530:2126
3Detroit City1473421:1424
4Louisville City1573525:2224
5Indy Eleven1263318:1221
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds1362515:1520
7Hartford Athletic1447312:1319
8Miami FC1546518:2418
9Rhode Island1344523:1816
10Birmingham Legion1528516:1914
11Brooklyn FC1433815:2412
12Loudoun United1418517:2811
13Sporting Jax15041119:414
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Orange County SC1677225:1828
2San Antonio FC1567220:1725
3New Mexico1363415:1421
4Oakland Roots1556424:2221
5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6Sacramento Republic1354415:1319
7El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
8FC Tulsa1354417:1619
9Lexington1353521:1618
10Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215