Sport Picks
Match Events
12'
12'
Zengue X.
Assist: Rodrigues B. P.
14'
14'
Nick Firmino
Assist: Goodrum P.
37'
37'
Cicerone R.
Penalty Missed
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Tampa Bay and Lexington finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lexington.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
38%
20%
42%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lexington
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Tampa Bay carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Lexington's way, sitting at 40%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 16%
Lexington Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tampa Bay | Lexington |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 4, 2026 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Lexington
1:4
May 24, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs Tampa Bay
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tampa Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Vivi Quesada G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Lexington Compare
Top Goalscorer Zengue X.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nick Firmino
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tampa Bay 28 / 100
Lexington 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tampa Bay Lexington
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lexington Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tampa Bay's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Lexington conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
Tampa Bay went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tampa Bay VS Lexington
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Tampa Bay
(Home) 27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1 Tampa Bay
05 Sept
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Brooklyn FC
29 Aug
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
05 Sept
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Brooklyn FC
15 Aug
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Rhode Island
12 Aug
Tampa Bay
0 : 1 Louisville City
02 Aug
Tampa Bay
5 : 4 Louisville City
Page 1 of 3
Lexington
(Away) 27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4 Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2 Lexington
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4 Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2 Lexington
27 Aug
New Mexico
2 : 1 Lexington
16 Aug
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Lexington
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 45:23 | 52 |
| 2 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 32:20 | 44 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:32 | 33 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:44 | 33 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 36:42 | 23 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 31:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26:52 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 45:32 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 39:31 | 43 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 36:24 | 43 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31:24 | 41 |
| 5 | Lexington | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 46:32 | 40 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 40:37 | 39 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 35:40 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 29:28 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34:38 | 33 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:35 | 33 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35:38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27:46 | 18 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
