Sport Picks
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, FL 
Match Events
21'
21'
Wilson J.
25'
25'
Donovan C.
Assist: Davila E.
28'
28'
Sub
Leerman Y. In: Hilton L.
Out: Leerman Y.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Tampa Bay and Louisville City finished 5-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tampa Bay.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Louisville City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Tampa Bay carry the better recent record into this one.
- Tampa Bay are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 20%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tampa Bay | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 14 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.66 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 12, 2026 USL Cup
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City
0:1
Aug 2, 2026 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City
5:4
May 30, 2026 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay
0:2
Jun 8, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay
2:1
Apr 19, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Louisville City
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tampa Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Cicerone R.
2 Goals Assists Leader Myers M.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Louisville City Compare
Top Goalscorer Morris J.
2 Goals Assists Leader Wilson J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tampa Bay 42 / 100
Louisville City 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tampa Bay Louisville City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Tampa Bay scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Louisville City has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Recent resilience: Tampa Bay stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tampa Bay VS Louisville City
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Tampa Bay
(Home) 10 Oct
Indy Eleven
1 : 3 Tampa Bay
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
05 Sept
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Brooklyn FC
15 Aug
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Rhode Island
12 Aug
Tampa Bay
0 : 1 Louisville City
Page 1 of 3
Louisville City
(Away) 10 Oct
Charleston
0 : 2 Louisville City
04 Oct
Hartford Athletic
0 : 1 Louisville City
25 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2 Louisville City
19 Sept
Louisville City
2 : 1 Loudoun United
12 Sept
Louisville City
1 : 2 El Paso Locomotive
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Charleston
0 : 2 Louisville City
04 Oct
Hartford Athletic
0 : 1 Louisville City
25 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2 Louisville City
09 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 1 Louisville City
05 Sept
Rhode Island
1 : 1 Louisville City
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 49:26 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 34:20 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 52:33 | 46 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 30:28 | 41 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 45:42 | 40 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 30:28 | 39 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39:30 | 38 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 38:47 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34:36 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 34:44 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48:36 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44:33 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 38:26 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32:25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41:38 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37:44 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 29:29 | 39 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37:41 | 36 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33:35 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 30:50 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
