Sport Picks
Match Events
5'
5'
Rocha A.
Assist: Milesi A.
45'
45'
Casciato D.
51'
51'
Sub
Tunbridge M. In: Mello D.
Out: Tunbridge M.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Tampa Bay and Miami FC finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Miami FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
15%
54%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Miami FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Tampa Bay carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 20%
Miami FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tampa Bay | Miami FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 6 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.62 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 3, 2026 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Miami FC
1:2
Jul 25, 2026 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Tampa Bay
2:3
May 16, 2026 USL Cup
Miami FC vs Tampa Bay
1:4
Jun 14, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Miami FC
2:1
Apr 26, 2025 USL Cup
Tampa Bay vs Miami FC
3:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tampa Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Ostrem C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Miami FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Rocha A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Da Costa R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tampa Bay 32 / 100
Miami FC 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tampa Bay Miami FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tampa Bay scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.
Miami FC has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Tampa Bay has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Tampa Bay VS Miami FC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tampa Bay
(Home) 10 Oct
Indy Eleven
1 : 3 Tampa Bay
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
05 Sept
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Brooklyn FC
15 Aug
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Rhode Island
12 Aug
Tampa Bay
0 : 1 Louisville City
Page 1 of 3
Miami FC
(Away) 10 Oct
Miami FC
0 : 2 Loudoun United
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
30 Sept
Miami FC
4 : 1 Sporting Jax
26 Sept
Indy Eleven
0 : 2 Miami FC
19 Sept
Rhode Island
1 : 2 Miami FC
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
26 Sept
Indy Eleven
0 : 2 Miami FC
19 Sept
Rhode Island
1 : 2 Miami FC
12 Sept
Brooklyn FC
1 : 1 Miami FC
24 Aug
Charleston
5 : 0 Miami FC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 49:26 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 34:20 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 52:33 | 46 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 30:28 | 41 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 45:42 | 40 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 30:28 | 39 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39:30 | 38 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 38:47 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34:36 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 34:44 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48:36 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44:33 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 38:26 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32:25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41:38 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37:44 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 29:29 | 39 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37:41 | 36 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33:35 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 30:50 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
