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Tanzania Prisons vs Fountain Gate Prediction & H2H Stats

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya
Tanzania Prisons Logo

Tanzania Prisons

1 - 0
FT
Fountain Gate Logo

Fountain Gate

Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Mpole G.
38'
Ramadhan D.
46'
Sub
Ramadhan D. In: Mutinda M.
Out: Ramadhan D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tanzania Prisons in this Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tanzania Prisons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tanzania Prisons
20%
Draws
29%
Fountain Gate
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tanzania Prisons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Fountain Gate average 0.77 goals a game right now, well clear of Tanzania Prisons's 0.7.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Tanzania Prisons Clean Sheet 68%
Fountain Gate Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tanzania Prisons Fountain Gate
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 8
Draws 6 6
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 0.7 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Fountain Gate
1:0
Nov 26, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Tanzania Prisons
1:0
Jun 30, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Fountain Gate
3:1
Jun 26, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Tanzania Prisons
1:1
Feb 26, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Tanzania Prisons
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tanzania Prisons Compare

Top Goalscorer Mpole G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Fountain Gate Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tanzania Prisons 41 / 100
Fountain Gate 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tanzania Prisons Fountain Gate

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tanzania Prisons Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fountain Gate let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Tanzania Prisons went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Fountain Gate registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tanzania Prisons VS Fountain Gate
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tanzania Prisons

(Home)
16 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
1 : 0
Polisi Tanzania
12 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
4 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
08 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
0 : 0
Mbeya City
05 Jul
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
30 Jun
Mashujaa
0 : 1
Tanzania Prisons
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Fountain Gate

(Away)
13 Sept
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Fountain Gate
31 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Young Africans
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Mbeya City
25 Aug
Namungo
1 : 0
Fountain Gate
18 Aug
Fountain Gate
1 : 0
Mashujaa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 71:9 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 54:11 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 46:12 64
4 Singida Black Stars 30 15 5 10 47:35 50
5 TRA United 30 11 10 9 33:28 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 30:33 42
7 Pamba 30 9 9 12 32:35 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 31:37 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 25:36 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 25:32 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 15:27 33
12 Fountain Gate 30 9 6 15 25:44 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 23:41 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 24:41 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 25:48 27
16 Kinondoni MC 30 2 3 25 16:53 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)