Sport Picks
Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar Prediction & H2H Stats
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya 
Match Events
76'
76'
Miraji S.
Assist: Ochu O.
85'
85'
Liuzio J.
90'
90'
Sengati K.
Assist: Ochu O.
AI Match Summary
Tanzania Prisons in this Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tanzania Prisons.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tanzania Prisons
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Tanzania Prisons have won more games recently than Mtibwa Sugar.
- Model gives Tanzania Prisons a 85% chance of winning this.
- Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Tanzania Prisons Clean Sheet 17%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tanzania Prisons | Mtibwa Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 16 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.7 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.47 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 27, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar
2:1
Feb 2, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Tanzania Prisons
2:1
Mar 9, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Tanzania Prisons
2:1
Oct 8, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar
3:2
Feb 3, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tanzania Prisons Compare
Top Goalscorer Miraji S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sengati K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Mtibwa Sugar Compare
Top Goalscorer Liuzio J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tanzania Prisons 84 / 100
Mtibwa Sugar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tanzania Prisons Mtibwa Sugar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tanzania Prisons Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Mtibwa Sugar let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Away concern: Mtibwa Sugar has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Solid form: Tanzania Prisons remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Tanzania Prisons VS Mtibwa Sugar
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tanzania Prisons
(Home) 16 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
1 : 0 Polisi Tanzania
12 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
4 : 0 Tanzania Prisons
08 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
0 : 0 Mbeya City
05 Jul
Mbeya City
2 : 0 Tanzania Prisons
30 Jun
Mashujaa
0 : 1 Tanzania Prisons
Page 1 of 6
16 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
1 : 0 Polisi Tanzania
08 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
0 : 0 Mbeya City
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
14 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
3 : 1 Dodoma Jiji
14 May
Tanzania Prisons
1 : 0 Fountain Gate
Page 1 of 4
Mtibwa Sugar
(Away) 30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 6
30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
20 May
TRA United
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 71:9 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 54:11 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 46:12 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 47:35 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 33:28 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 30:33 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 32:35 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:37 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 25:36 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 25:32 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15:27 | 33 |
| 12 | Fountain Gate | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25:44 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23:41 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 24:41 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25:48 | 27 |
| 16 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16:53 | 9 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)
