Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya
Our Tip

Match Events

87' Event
Kaboma N.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Tanzania Prisons advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Tanzania Prisons
15%
Draws
39%
Polisi Tanzania
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tanzania Prisons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Polisi Tanzania carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Polisi Tanzania arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tanzania Prisons, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Tanzania Prisons Clean Sheet 14%
Polisi Tanzania Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tanzania Prisons Polisi Tanzania
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 0.69 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania
1:0
Jul 12, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Polisi Tanzania vs Tanzania Prisons
4:0
Feb 19, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Polisi Tanzania vs Tanzania Prisons
1:0
Oct 25, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania
2:0
May 1, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tanzania Prisons Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaboma N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Polisi Tanzania Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tanzania Prisons 31 / 100
Polisi Tanzania 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tanzania Prisons Polisi Tanzania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Polisi Tanzania's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Tanzania Prisons has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Polisi Tanzania lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tanzania Prisons VS Polisi Tanzania
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tanzania Prisons

(Home)
16 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
1 : 0
Polisi Tanzania
12 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
4 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
08 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
0 : 0
Mbeya City
05 Jul
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Tanzania Prisons
30 Jun
Mashujaa
0 : 1
Tanzania Prisons
Page 1 of 7

Polisi Tanzania

(Away)
08 Oct
Mashujaa
2 : 1
Polisi Tanzania
12 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
2 : 0
Mbeya City
06 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 2
Coastal Union
29 Aug
Singida Black Stars
4 : 2
Polisi Tanzania
25 Aug
Dodoma Jiji
0 : 1
Polisi Tanzania
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Tanzania Prisons 0
Mbeya City 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Polisi Tanzania 7
Mbeya Kwanza 1
Final
Mbeya City -
TBD -
Tanzania Prisons 1
Polisi Tanzania 4