Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tapachula vs Jaguares De Chiapas

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026
Tapachula Logo

Tapachula

1 - 2
FT
Jaguares De Chiapas Logo

Jaguares De Chiapas

Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
23' Event
56' Event
Guillen Nucamendi J. R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jaguares De Chiapas in this Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jaguares De Chiapas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Tapachula
30%
Draws
39%
Jaguares De Chiapas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jaguares De Chiapas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Tapachula have won more games recently than Jaguares De Chiapas.
  • Win probability leans Jaguares De Chiapas's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Tapachula Clean Sheet 20%
Jaguares De Chiapas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tapachula Jaguares De Chiapas
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 10
Draws 1 5
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.86 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Jaguares De Chiapas vs Tapachula
1:3
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Tapachula vs Jaguares De Chiapas
1:2
Apr 13, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Tapachula vs Jaguares De Chiapas
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Jaguares De Chiapas vs Tapachula
2:3
Dec 1, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A
Jaguares De Chiapas vs Tapachula
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tapachula Compare

Top Goalscorer Guillen Nucamendi J. R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Jaguares De Chiapas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tapachula 24 / 100
Jaguares De Chiapas 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tapachula Jaguares De Chiapas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jaguares De Chiapas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Tapachula's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Jaguares De Chiapas let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Tapachula went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tapachula VS Jaguares De Chiapas
1.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tapachula

(Home)
19 Sept
Pioneros
5 : 1
Tapachula
12 Sept
Tapachula
2 : 0
Inter Playa Del Carmen
06 Sept
Celaya
2 : 0
Tapachula
29 Aug
Tapachula
0 : 4
Racing de Veracruz
19 Apr
Tapachula
1 : 1
Tritones Vallarta
Page 1 of 6

Jaguares De Chiapas

(Away)
12 Sept
Deportiva Venados
2 : 0
Jaguares De Chiapas
06 Sept
Jaguares De Chiapas
2 : 3
Montaneses
29 Aug
Chapulineros
0 : 1
Jaguares De Chiapas
12 Apr
Celaya
1 : 1
Jaguares De Chiapas
29 Mar
Jaguares De Chiapas
0 : 0
Chapulineros
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alacranes de Durango 26 21 2 3 71:16 74
2 Tigres de Alica 26 17 3 6 46:25 56
3 Cimarrones de Sonora 26 15 7 4 46:19 54
4 Leones Negros 2 26 16 2 8 42:26 53
5 Tecos 26 14 4 8 49:34 49
6 Tritones Vallarta 26 15 1 10 32:27 46
7 Mineros de Fresnillo 26 11 4 11 40:41 39
8 Los Cabos United 26 11 3 12 37:40 37
9 Guerreros de Autlan 26 8 5 13 38:42 32
10 UA Zacatecas 26 8 4 14 32:49 29
11 Ensenada FC 26 8 2 16 30:55 28
12 Reboceros de La Piedad 26 7 1 18 39:66 23
13 Zapotlanejo 26 6 1 19 39:73 21
14 Colima FC 26 4 3 19 24:52 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Apodaca 26 21 2 3 47:19 66
2 FC Santiago 26 14 7 5 43:21 51
3 Zacatepec 26 12 8 6 29:15 45
4 Halcones de Zapopan 26 11 6 9 44:27 44
5 Calor De San Pedro 26 12 7 7 37:26 44
6 Gavilanes de Matamoros 26 12 5 9 31:22 44
7 Lobos ULMX 26 11 6 9 33:28 40
8 Correcaminos 2 26 9 7 10 27:25 36
9 Chilpancingo 26 9 8 9 33:41 35
10 Cordobes FC 26 8 6 12 29:30 30
11 Zitacuaro 26 6 10 10 22:31 28
12 CS Canamy 26 5 8 13 33:53 26
13 Ciervos 26 4 4 18 20:50 18
14 Atletico Hidalgo 26 4 4 18 22:62 16
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 24 21 3 0 55:9 71
2 Deportiva Venados 24 15 4 5 61:25 52
3 Tapachula 24 13 0 11 51:35 44
4 Celaya 24 12 4 8 42:32 43
5 Inter Playa Del Carmen 24 13 4 7 35:28 42
6 Montaneses 24 12 2 10 35:28 38
7 Pioneros 24 10 3 11 35:35 35
8 Jaguares De Chiapas 24 9 4 11 33:32 34
9 Heroes de Zaci 24 10 2 12 33:46 34
10 Chapulineros 24 5 8 11 21:33 23
11 Canoneros FC 24 7 1 16 25:49 22
12 Neza FC 24 5 2 17 25:73 19
13 Dragones Toluca 24 4 3 17 21:47 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)